Fatigue is often overlooked by mug punters. They often fail to quantify the negative impact that travel and hard matches have on a Rugby League side when forming their ratings for each team.
This week’s selection focuses on a side which fits this profile nicely, against an opposition who has the ability and form to capitalise, and pile on the points.
Brisbane straddle last week's home fixture with a brutal trip to 1300 Smiles the previous week (lost to Cowboys) and now a tough Sydney road trip to face the Roosters. These sequence of games pose a great risk from a fatigue angle.
Add to that the constant media niggle regarding coach Bennett’s future, and you can expect the Broncos' playing list to be mentally and physically fried for this one.
There is no doubting Brisbane’s last start effort against Souths at home was impressive, however they have historically struggled on the road all season with only 3 wins from 11 when playing away from Suncorp. Two of these victories came against competition underweights West Tigers, the NZ Warriors and the other against South Sydney.
This record highlights a severe weakness on the road and in particularly when taking on quality away sides.
The Roosters, to the Broncos detriment, fit this profile. Expect the in-form tri-colours, buoyed by the incentive of winning this game to sit top of the table with the Storm, to exploit a “flat” Broncos side on the road.
Whilst there is residual solidarity from the outpouring of support for Bennett and his favoured 'BBQ night', the intensity will eventually dissipate. Expect it to drop on Saturday night in Sydney, when the pressure cooker becomes all too much for the Broncos.
Back the chooks to put plenty past them and cover the -6.5 with ease.