• Join
  • Login
  • BNA Twitter
  • BNA Facebook
  • 01:14:04 AEST
  • Sunday, 01 August 2021
  • Gamble Responsibly 18+
Pumped Up Bet

Sports Betting Tips: Pumped Up Punt of the Week 28 July 2018

Tagged: NRL

Cognitive bias to fool mug punters

Melbourne Storm V Canberra Raiders 

The Melbourne Storm fit the classic “banana skin” profile for the mug punters this week, coming off the back of 7 straight wins where they have not lost since Round 11.

Interestingly, the Round 11 loss was at home ground AAMI Park against the Sea Eagles, where they face the Raiders this week.  

This match will impose a classic trait on some whereby the cognitive bias will kick in for most mug punters, influencing their thought process and manifesting a sub conscious thought dynamic which declares “the Storm can’t lose this”.

Bookies are well aware of this bias and will have the Storm price even further under-value, to accommodate the expected heavy investment of public money. 

The travel fatigue with Storm players on the road the past week including a New Zealand visit, will also add to the Raiders' chances and is another factor which is commonly disregarded by most of the public money investment in betting.

If we go back to the Storm's last loss in Round 11 at AAMI Park, this followed a similar profile where the team had returned from a gruelling away schedule to the Gold Coast and Sydney (where they won both).

Granted Storm talisman Cam Smith was missing in that game however a Manly side low on confidence managed a 20 point victory on that occasion. Whilst it does not always translate to a loss upon return home, the fatigue of travel is still a significant factor.

Added motivation for Canberra will come from the controversial loss to the Sharks last week where Ricky Stuart led the outpouring of grief and disappointment in a well-publicised post-match press conference where he was simply disgusted in the match officials' performance.

These emotional flashpoints do have the ability to galvanise the playing group for the following week and if the Raiders can draw from this, extra effort should be present.

Bet against the mug money and take the value side in betting, which will be the Raiders.

 

NRL Betting Tip NRL Betting Tip: Raiders to cover the line (+9.5) @ $1.90

Share On:

Trending Racing & Sport News

Caulfield Finish4

Caulfield Best Bets for Sir John Monash Stakes Day 10/07/21

Caulfield plays host to Sir John Monash Stakes Day on Saturday, with big competitive fields the theme of a good afternoo.....

Jul 10, 2021 10:11AM
READ MORE right-arrow

Market Movers

Pro Punter tips from Market Moves 26/06/21

We found two winners from our 7 early market mover selections last week, with Express Pass ($2.90) getting home at Flemi.....

Jun 25, 2021 10:09AM
READ MORE right-arrow

Eagle Farm Barrier

Eagle Farm Tips for the Queensland Derby & The Kingsford Smith 29/05/21

Eagle Farm hosts a huge day of racing on Saturday, highlighted by the Group 1 Queensland Derby over 2400m and The Kingsf.....

May 31, 2021 05:46PM
READ MORE right-arrow

Behemoth

Horse Racing Tips and best bets for The Goodwood 15/05/21

Distance 1200m Grade Group 1 Track Rating Soft 5 Prizemoney .....

May 13, 2021 11:53AM
READ MORE right-arrow

Racing & Sports Betting Topics


Tweets by @BettingNetworkA


Sports Expert Tipster Top 5


Top Horse Racing Tipsters

Kingofthewes..
Pro
313% POT
kingully
Pro
290% POT
TPGTEMPO
Punter
275% POT
Bet2Freedom
Punter
230% POT
Shadowfax
Punter
215% POT
Full Leaderboard
Gordon Armst..
124% POT
Ric Chapman
110% POT
David Fowler
87% POT
James Jordan
69% POT
Lincoln Moor..
56% POT
 
Gordon Armst.. 124% POT
Ric Chapman 110% POT
David Fowler 87% POT
James Jordan 69% POT
Lincoln Moor.. 56% POT
 

Next Race to Jump


More Sports & Racing news you might like

Behemoth

Horse Racing Tips and best bets for The Goodwood 15/05/21

Distance 1200m Grade Group 1 Track Rating Soft 5 Prizemoney .....

READ MORE right-arrow

Warrnambool Crowd 040521

Best bets for horse racing at Warrnambool 04/05/21

Victorian racing heads to "The Bool" for Day 1 of the state's biggest country carnival at the coastal town of Warrnamboo.....

READ MORE right-arrow

Randwick Finish3

Randwick Tips for Champagne Stakes & All Aged Stakes 24/04/21

The Sydney Autumn Carnival rounds out in style this weekend, with a solid nine race card scheduled for Randwick followin.....

READ MORE right-arrow

The Championships

Randwick tips for the TJ Smith & Sires Produce Stakes 10/04/21

Randwick hosts a bumper card of Championships racing on Saturday, with no fewer than four Group 1 events featuring on th.....

READ MORE right-arrow

Golden Slipper Trophy

Rosehill Tips for the Golden Slipper 20/03/21

Distance 1200m Grade Group 1 Track Rating Soft 6 Prizemoney .....

READ MORE right-arrow

Moonee Valley Night

Moonee Valley Tips for the William Reid Stakes 19/03/21

Distance 1200m Grade Group 1 Track Rating Soft 5 Prizemoney .....

READ MORE right-arrow

Copyright © 2021 S93 www.bettingnetworkaustralia.com.au

Stay in Control. For gambling help call 1800 858 858 or your local State gambling helpline, Gamblers Help, Mission Australia or visit www.gamblinghelponline.org.au. Users must be at least 18 years old.

www.bettingnetworkaustralia.com.au (the "site") is not a bookmaking or wagering website. As such the site does not provide bookmaking or wagering services. We are a tipping and information service site. If you choose to take tips or use information on this website, you acknowledge and agree that you will only wager with licensed service providers for your jurisdiction. For help call 1800 858 858 or visit www.gamblinghelponline.org.au. Our Terms and Conditions are listed here.

Feedback