An edge that some professional punters hold, is their ability to make the most accurate and appropriate adjustment to their ratings when analysing the key input of fatigue.
This week we have found an excellent example which features a game where the public money will more often than not disregard this important factor.
Port Adelaide V GWS Giants
Mug punters are highly likely to over-bet GWS this week following their win against Richmond in round 17, however they will fail to consider how much a taxing Richmond fixture (on a number of levels) takes out of a side in terms of fatigue.
This includes the week's build up, which is far more intense and attracts much more media scrutiny when pitted against a high profile club, as does match day and not to mention the extra physical exertion required on the field.
Taking an overarching perspective, playing a high profile club is draining on the player group, both mentally and physically and requires a far greater adjustment in betting for fatigue. Most public money does not allow for this when pricing a fixture of this profile.
The other significant factor for this match is the fact Port Adelaide are coming off the back of a close loss to Fyfe-less Fremantle, which typically will breed a heightened sense of motivation amongst the player group and a greater sense of urgency for this week.
The profile of Port Adelaide sets up nicely where if we go back to round 7, they returned from Perth Stadium following a comprehensive loss to West Coast and reacted well in round 8 at home to beat the Crows in a hard fought win.
Whilst the sample is small, it does pay to follow, especially teams who have travelled unsuccessfully and return home.
Bet against the public money which will be on GWS and take the value about Port Adelaide.
AFL Betting Tip: Port Adelaide to cover the line (-4.5) @ $1.90