• Join
  • Login
  • BNA Twitter
  • BNA Facebook
  • 19:15:46 AEST
  • Wednesday, 24 April 2019
  • Gamble Responsibly 18+
Demons Nathan Jones

AFL Betting Tips Hawthorn vs Melbourne Elimination Final Preview 2018


Dees fans dare to dream

Jump To: Collingwoods vs GWS Hawthorn vs Melbourne

Hawthorn v Melbourne

AFL Odds: Hawthorn $2.75 (+13.5) / Melbourne $1.46 (-13.5)

There's a smell wafting through the streets of Melbourne, mingling with the ever-present aroma of roasted organic coffee beans.

The smell of yet another AFL fairytale. 

The previous two seasons have seen the Western Bulldogs break their 62-year premiership drought, followed by the Richmond Tigers snap their 37-year dry spell.

Many punters are of the belief that after spending so many years in AFL wilderness, the Demons are on the verge of claiming their first flag in 54 years, completing the trifecta of fairytales.

Their dynamic and 'attack at all costs' style of footy is reminiscent of both the Dogs and the Tigers before them.

This is why, if they play at their best, they will make light work of the Hawks.

While Melbourne's momentum is mounting with consecutive wins over the Eagles, Giants and Cats, Hawthorn had the handbrake put on their forward thrust with a meek performance against the Tigers last week.

They lost by 31, but it could easily have been more.

Alastair Clarkson will need to orchestrate another tactical masterclass if the Hawks have any chance here.

You wouldn't put it past the four-time premiership coach. 

Especially considering that when these teams last met in Round 4, the Hawks did a demolition job on the Demons in a dominant 67-point win. 

 

AFL Stats AFL Stats Analysis

Part of the reason why the Hawks looked so poor against the Tigers was their below-par effective disposal percentage

AFL Stats

The main strength of Hawthorn's game over the last decade has been their ability to use the ball effectively, especially in the big moments.

Their supreme hand and foot skills has been a trademark of their game this year as well.

However, finals footy is a different beast, and Hawthorn looked flustered in possession, continually turning over the ball.

While Melbourne's pressure isn't quite as ferocious as Richmond's, they will no doubt make it their mission to fluster the usually unflappable Hawks at every opportunity.

The scary fact for Hawthorn fans is that the Demons also used the ball wastefully in their game against Geelong.

AFL Stats


The Dees absolutely butchered the ball in front of goal, and yet still won by 29 points. 

With the amount of chances they had, Simon Goodwin's men could easily have won by fifty or more.  

 

Where it will be won

The problem for Hawthorn is that they face an uphill battle just to be on par with Melbourne's contested possession-winning capabilities.

As the Demons win so much more of the ball, especially in the midfield, they generate so many more scoring opportunities each game.

AFL Stats

Hawthorn star and Brownlow medal favourite Tom Mitchell had a blinder against the Cats, racking up a mammoth 23 contested possessions and booting a goal.

You don't feel he can do much more here, so it's up to Hawthorn's other players to stand up. 

Clarkson needs to get more out of his younger players, especially with the likes of Conner Nash, James Worpel and Harry Morrison all being largely anonymous in their first finals appearance last week.

They will all be better for that experience, so you can't completely discount Hawthorn's chances of winning. 

However, another worrying reality for the Hawks is that it was Melbourne's fringe players who were amongst their best last week.

The dynamic attacking weapons of Christian Petracca and Jake Melksham both had quiet games. 

Look for a big improvement from these two, which would tip the scales further in Melbourne's favour. 

AFL Player In David Mirra (Hawthorn, likely)

AFL Player Out Ben Stratton (Hawthorn)

AFL Weather Fine conditions, which means a high-scoring final is on the cards.

 

Key AFL Stat 

  • The Hawks have won each of their last 3 matches as a home underdog by a margin of 1-39 points: Hawthorn to win by a margin of 1-39 points @ $3.30

 

AFL Betting TipAFL Betting Tip: Melbourne to cover the -13.5 point line @ $1.92

Reasoning: With a game style and momentum that recent years have shown is tailor made for finals footy, Melbourne should win and win by a margin.

Share On:

Trending Racing & Sport News

Roosters Cordner Tackled

NRL Betting Tips: The early games Round 7 Season 2019

NRL punters face two interesting betting games on ANZAC Day, where there are two heavy favourites in the NRL odds market.....

Apr 24, 2019 04:16PM
READ MORE right-arrow

Richmond Dusty Martin 2018

AFL Betting Tips: The early games Round 6 Season 2019

The ANZAC round of the AFL gets underway on Wednesday night, when the struggling Dees will hope to keep it competitive a.....

Apr 24, 2019 04:15PM
READ MORE right-arrow

Chicago Cubs Cole Hamels

MLB Betting Picks: Best plays for 25 April 2019

Baseball fans are treated with an array of intriguing midweek matchups on Thursday. The day starts nice and early, wh.....

Apr 24, 2019 04:12PM
READ MORE right-arrow

Bookie Promos

Betting Promotions Review 20 April 2019

The Autumn Carnival concluded on Saturday, and while some punters were cheering after the races late on the card, most d.....

Apr 24, 2019 10:29AM
READ MORE right-arrow

Betting Offers

click and get your bonus today!

* NEW ACC ONLY, EXC NSW, SA, WA & VIC. TURNOVER REQUIREMENTS & EXPIRY PERIOD APPLY. SEE T&CS ON WEBSITE. GAMBLE RESPONSIBLY.



Racing & Sports Betting Topics


Tweets by @BettingNetworkA


Sports Expert Tipster Top 5

Wally Lewis
Channel 9
58 Pts $ 48.9
Mike Coleman
Courier Mail
54 Pts $ 45.3
Paul Malone
Courier Mail
54 Pts $ 44.9
Hannah Holli..
Fox Sports
54 Pts $ 44.8
Darren Lock..
Channel 9
52 Pts $ 44.0
Full NRL Leaderboard
Gerard Whate..
Fox Footy
34 Pts $ 31.0
Dermott Brer..
Fox Footy
32 Pts $ 27.8
Eliza Sewell
Herald Sun
30 Pts $ 29.9
Tyson Goldsa..
Herald Sun
30 Pts $ 28.5
Mick Malthou..
Herald Sun
30 Pts $ 26.4
Full AFL Leaderboard

Top Horse Racing Tipsters

Grigga23
Pro
250% POT
tridents
Pro
240% POT
FourexTips
Pro
180% POT
thedott
Pro
110% POT
HOLDINGACES
Pro
110% POT
Full Leaderboard
Greg Polson
500% POT
Bernadette C..
198% POT
Matthew Jack..
145% POT
Nick Quinn
135% POT
Chris Vernuc..
135% POT
 
Greg Polson 500% POT
Bernadette C.. 198% POT
Nick Quinn 135% POT
Chris Vernuc.. 135% POT
ChrisNelson 84% POT
 

Next Race to Jump


More Sports & Racing news you might like

Bookie Promos

Betting Promotions Review 20 April 2019

The Autumn Carnival concluded on Saturday, and while some punters were cheering after the races late on the card, most d.....

READ MORE right-arrow

Generic 171123

Free horse racing tips for midweek races 24 April 2019

Free racing tips from Ben Beare You can access all of Ben's tips for Wednesday's racing on his tips page here.   .....

READ MORE right-arrow

Souths Cameron Murray

NRL Betting Tips: Friday night footy Round 7 Season 2019

Friday night footy kicks-off in Homebush, where the Dogs will be desperate for a win to lift them off the bottom of the .....

READ MORE right-arrow

GWS Toby Greene2

AFL Betting Tips: Super Saturday Round 6 Season 2019

There are four cracking matches for AFL punters to get their teeth stuck into on Saturday, highlighted by two derbies. .....

READ MORE right-arrow

Bookie Promos

Betting Promotions Preview 20 April 2019

The last meet of the Sydney Autumn Carnival takes place at Randwick this Saturday, with the running of two cracking Grou.....

READ MORE right-arrow

Doomben 230518

Doomben tips and best bets 20 April 2019

Brisbane metropolitan racing heads to Doomben this Saturday, where the track is currently rated a Good 4 and the ra.....

READ MORE right-arrow

Copyright © 2019 S92 www.bettingnetworkaustralia.com.au
Stay in Control. For gambling help call 1800 858 858 or your local State gambling helpline, Gamblers Help, Mission Australia or visit www.gamblinghelponline.org.au.
Users must be at least 18 years old.
Feedback