• Join
  • Login
  • BNA Twitter
  • BNA Facebook
  • 04:38:54 AEST
  • Wednesday, 13 November 2019
  • Gamble Responsibly 18+
Ladbrokes - Back Yourself
Demons Nathan Jones

AFL Betting Tips Hawthorn vs Melbourne Elimination Final Preview 2018


Dees fans dare to dream

Jump To: Collingwoods vs GWS Hawthorn vs Melbourne

Hawthorn v Melbourne

AFL Odds: Hawthorn $2.75 (+13.5) / Melbourne $1.46 (-13.5)

There's a smell wafting through the streets of Melbourne, mingling with the ever-present aroma of roasted organic coffee beans.

The smell of yet another AFL fairytale. 

The previous two seasons have seen the Western Bulldogs break their 62-year premiership drought, followed by the Richmond Tigers snap their 37-year dry spell.

Many punters are of the belief that after spending so many years in AFL wilderness, the Demons are on the verge of claiming their first flag in 54 years, completing the trifecta of fairytales.

Their dynamic and 'attack at all costs' style of footy is reminiscent of both the Dogs and the Tigers before them.

This is why, if they play at their best, they will make light work of the Hawks.

While Melbourne's momentum is mounting with consecutive wins over the Eagles, Giants and Cats, Hawthorn had the handbrake put on their forward thrust with a meek performance against the Tigers last week.

They lost by 31, but it could easily have been more.

Alastair Clarkson will need to orchestrate another tactical masterclass if the Hawks have any chance here.

You wouldn't put it past the four-time premiership coach. 

Especially considering that when these teams last met in Round 4, the Hawks did a demolition job on the Demons in a dominant 67-point win. 

 

AFL Stats AFL Stats Analysis

Part of the reason why the Hawks looked so poor against the Tigers was their below-par effective disposal percentage

AFL Stats

The main strength of Hawthorn's game over the last decade has been their ability to use the ball effectively, especially in the big moments.

Their supreme hand and foot skills has been a trademark of their game this year as well.

However, finals footy is a different beast, and Hawthorn looked flustered in possession, continually turning over the ball.

While Melbourne's pressure isn't quite as ferocious as Richmond's, they will no doubt make it their mission to fluster the usually unflappable Hawks at every opportunity.

The scary fact for Hawthorn fans is that the Demons also used the ball wastefully in their game against Geelong.

AFL Stats


The Dees absolutely butchered the ball in front of goal, and yet still won by 29 points. 

With the amount of chances they had, Simon Goodwin's men could easily have won by fifty or more.  

 

Where it will be won

The problem for Hawthorn is that they face an uphill battle just to be on par with Melbourne's contested possession-winning capabilities.

As the Demons win so much more of the ball, especially in the midfield, they generate so many more scoring opportunities each game.

AFL Stats

Hawthorn star and Brownlow medal favourite Tom Mitchell had a blinder against the Cats, racking up a mammoth 23 contested possessions and booting a goal.

You don't feel he can do much more here, so it's up to Hawthorn's other players to stand up. 

Clarkson needs to get more out of his younger players, especially with the likes of Conner Nash, James Worpel and Harry Morrison all being largely anonymous in their first finals appearance last week.

They will all be better for that experience, so you can't completely discount Hawthorn's chances of winning. 

However, another worrying reality for the Hawks is that it was Melbourne's fringe players who were amongst their best last week.

The dynamic attacking weapons of Christian Petracca and Jake Melksham both had quiet games. 

Look for a big improvement from these two, which would tip the scales further in Melbourne's favour. 

AFL Player In David Mirra (Hawthorn, likely)

AFL Player Out Ben Stratton (Hawthorn)

AFL Weather Fine conditions, which means a high-scoring final is on the cards.

 

Key AFL Stat 

  • The Hawks have won each of their last 3 matches as a home underdog by a margin of 1-39 points: Hawthorn to win by a margin of 1-39 points @ $3.30

 

AFL Betting TipAFL Betting Tip: Melbourne to cover the -13.5 point line @ $1.92

Reasoning: With a game style and momentum that recent years have shown is tailor made for finals footy, Melbourne should win and win by a margin.

Share On:

Trending Racing & Sport News

EarlyMarketMovers

Horse racing tips from early market movers 9/11/19

As the Flemington carnival draws to a close, punters are still active in identifying the mispriced runners on the final .....

Nov 08, 2019 01:50PM
READ MORE right-arrow

Bookie Promos

9/11/19 Betting Promotions Preview

The Melbourne Cup has come and gone but the Spring Carnival is far from over. There's still a few cracking meets .....

Nov 08, 2019 08:50AM
READ MORE right-arrow

Bookie Ring 060218

Free horse racing tips and best bets for 9 November 2019

Free racing tips from Michael Gannon Michael's tips have generated $3,200 in profit from$100 win bets over the past 9.....

Nov 07, 2019 05:04PM
READ MORE right-arrow

Form Guide Lay

Saturday racing Lays of the Day 9 November 2019

We dodged more bullets on Cup Day, after two short-priced runners succumbed to the false favourite tag.  We now move .....

Nov 07, 2019 03:49PM
READ MORE right-arrow

Betting Offers

Start a Punters Club

Racing & Sports Betting Topics


Tweets by @BettingNetworkA


Sports Expert Tipster Top 5

Chris Garry
Courier Mail
100 Pts $ 81.3
Wally Lewis
Channel 9
96 Pts $ 78.7
Paul Malone
Courier Mail
96 Pts $ 78.6
Peter Badel
Courier Mail
92 Pts $ 73.8
Darren Lock..
Channel 9
90 Pts $ 75.4
Full NRL Leaderboard
Eliza Sewell
Herald Sun
98 Pts $ 81.9
Tyson Goldsa..
Herald Sun
98 Pts $ 78.6
Bianca Chatf..
Herald Sun
96 Pts $ 74.7
Mick Malthou..
Herald Sun
96 Pts $ 74.2
Lauren Wood
Herald Sun
96 Pts $ 72.5
Full AFL Leaderboard

Top Horse Racing Tipsters

NODDY
Punter
300% POT
Mosse
Pro
300% POT
MiltonRash
Punter
300% POT
kendo7
Punter
160% POT
vyking
Punter
150% POT
Full Leaderboard
TimGuille
43% POT
Adam Cretten..
20% POT
Nic Ashman
- 6% POT
Nick Quinn
- 8% POT
Warren Huntl..
- 33% POT
 
TimGuille 43% POT
Adam Cretten.. 20% POT
Nic Ashman - 6% POT
Nick Quinn - 8% POT
Steve Daviso.. - 74% POT
 

Next Race to Jump


Ladbrokes Odds Boost

More Sports & Racing news you might like

Form Guide Lay

Saturday racing Lays of the Day 9 November 2019

We dodged more bullets on Cup Day, after two short-priced runners succumbed to the false favourite tag.  We now move .....

READ MORE right-arrow

Flemington Finishing Post Shade

Horse Racing Tips for Stakes Day 2019

The final carnival day at Flemington appears a great card of racing and will provide punters with plenty of opportunity .....

READ MORE right-arrow

Rosehill Front On

Rosehill tips and best bets for Golden Gift Day 2019

Following the success of last weekend's inaugural Golden Eagle, Rosehill Gardens plays host to a competitive nine-ra.....

READ MORE right-arrow

Santa Ana Lane

Flemington tips and best bets: Darley Sprint Classic Preview 2019

Distance 1200m Grade Group 1 Track Rating Soft 5 Prizemoney .....

READ MORE right-arrow

Melody Belle

Flemington tips and best bets: Mackinnon Stakes Preview 2019

Distance 2000m Grade Group 1 Track Rating Soft 5  Prizemoney.....

READ MORE right-arrow

Miami Bound

Flemington tips and best bets for Oaks Day 2019

With the dust barely settled from Cup Day, we return the Flemington for day two of the three day Cup Carnival.  The G.....

READ MORE right-arrow

Copyright © 2019 S93 www.bettingnetworkaustralia.com.au
Stay in Control. For gambling help call 1800 858 858 or your local State gambling helpline, Gamblers Help, Mission Australia or visit www.gamblinghelponline.org.au.
Users must be at least 18 years old.
Feedback