Analyst: Alex Christodoulou
Sep 07, 2018 06:21 PM
Finals new boys face tough task
AFL Odds: Melbourne $1.74 (-4.5) / Geelong $2.10 (+4.5)
There's nothing better than sudden death footy, as teams give every ounce of effort to keep their premiership dreams alive.
To say that this Friday night clash between the Demons and Cats is a blockbuster would be a massive understatement.
This is the first finals appearance Melbourne have made since 2006, with their success-starved fans sure to turn out in numbers.
It has been a long decade and a bit for Demons fans, who will be looking for their side to get the win and not go out in a whimper.
The Dees have more than enough points in them to get the job done.
Tom McDonald has been a revelation in the forward line, while the likes of Christian Petracca, Nathan Jones and Angus Brayshaw can all get on the scoreboard from the midfield.
However, they will be up against it facing a finals-hardened Geelong outfit.
The Cats are finals footy regulars, only missing out once in the past decade.
Joel Selwood, Gary Ablett and Patrick Dangerfield are all 'express built' for these big games.
Also with a good mix of up-and-coming players, Geelong are in a healthy position once again, despite finishing in eighth place.
They are coming off back-to-back 100+ point wins, as well as the added confidence of already having defeated the Demons twice this year.
Those games were decided by three and two points respectively, with both games going right down to the wire.
Expect another thriller here.
Jack Viney (Demons, likely)
No rain forecast, with a high-scoring and entertaining game on the cards.
AFL Stats in Focus
This fixture pits the highest scoring team in the league (Melbourne) against the team with the best defence (Geelong).
With the most inside 50s, it's Melbourne's ability to win the ball from the midfield and repeatedly send it into the forward line that makes them such a high scoring team.
However, their defence is their definite weakness, often failing to stop goals and send the ball forward from down back.
Geelong meanwhile are a more balanced team all over the park.
Their high rebound 50 numbers for a team playing finals footy indicates the success of their defenders in instigating attacks.
In finals footy, scoring freely is always more difficult, which favours Chris Scott's men and their league-leading defence.
Key AFL Stat
- Geelong have lost each of their last 5 matches at the MCG by a margin of 1-39 points: Melbourne to win by 1-39 points @ $2.37
AFL Betting Tip: Geelong to win head-to-head @ $2.10
Reasoning: As much as Melbourne are the people's favourites, the experienced stars in the Cats line-up look to be the difference here.