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Form Guide Lay

Saturday racing Lays of the Day 14 September 2019


Potting Pretenders

This week’s Lay selections feature two high profile runners that will no doubt be very popular with the rank and file “pub Tab” money.

Bookies will have no trouble laying them to the mugs, but to my eye their current quotes appear well under the odds.

Expect a market drift for both as we approach start time and for value to be found elsewhere. 

 

Rosehill Race 5 #1 Castelvecchio $2.80

Going to pot the star two-year-old and Champagne Stakes winner, who makes his return here now one year older.

The stable will want him to have plenty left in the tank for more loftier Spring targets than this, and even with the two trials under the belt he'll need time to wind-up. 

He will get a long way back in the run towards the rear and there doesn't look to be much speed engaged at all.

It will take a mighty effort if Just Thinkin and Superium drop anchor and I doubt he’ll have the fitness to chase hard off a slow speed.  

Expect a market drift and him to be charging late when it’s all over. Lay.

Castlevecchio

 

Rosehill Race 6 #4 Exceedance $2.20

Is now very well found by the mug public money and he is sure to jump at an artificially compressed price.

No doubting his clear above average ability and prominence as a genuine winning chance, however from a price angle he represents a great risk for punters. 

He meets these back on a dry surface and going off the last start win, he would likely have them all covered again if it was wet.

I have to concede that he's also handy on dry. However, I believe the firmer track here will bring him back to the field. 

This is the perfect time to take him on, given the poison odds of $2.20. It provides punters with an excellent opportunity to bet the other high quality hopes at a great price, now that the mugs have dropped off. Lay. 

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