Analyst: James Beeson
Dec 13, 2018 03:10 PM
Up in class & Under the odds
This week we focus on two runners that have built up an excellent record in the lower grades, however are forced to tackle stakes level for the first time on Saturday.
This is often a recipe for disaster, as mug punters focus on the wins and disregard the quality of opposition they have come up against in recent racing.
Avoid these runners at their price in current betting markets, at all costs .
Randwick Race 6 #9 Cradle Mountain $2
Is forced to step-up in grade again and this time it is up to stakes level, where $2.00 is far too short to find out if he can make the jump.
There are plenty of good types in this who are seasoned at this level and won’t make it easy for the favourite.
They include Kaepernick and Deploy, who have both won at Group level in recent starts and should provide stiff opposition.
The profile of Firsthand is also preferred. He has strong My Nordic Hero form who lines-up in the Villiers, and appears one that team Hawkes have a high opinion of.
Although the speed looks moderate and Cradle Mountain is likely to find the front, I doubt he will get it all his own way.
With any pressure present up front, he won't handle this class rise.
He's a must avoid at the poison odds of $2.00 and a likely market drifter late. No.
Doomben Race 8 #1 Zoustyle $2.80
The mugs have locked onto this one following the hype and stylish win last start….against nothing!
First attempt at stakes grade and more often than not, that is enough for the picket fence bubble built up in the lower grades to go “pop”.
Expect him to have to work overtime from a horror draw in gate 10, with plenty looking to kick-up underneath including Pennino and Chess Star.
These runners will both likely have him planted wide the entire trip.
With an ugly speed map and enough class engaged elsewhere, the current $2.80 in betting looks well under the odds. Lay.