Analyst: James Beeson
Apr 06, 2018 03:00 PM
High profile sprinter won’t get it all his own way
The high profile nature of some horses often means they come up well under-the-odds. This occurs when bookmakers are focussed on trading the anticipated heavy investment on a particular runner. This week’s Lays identify two horses who fit this profile, along with a number of other factors which point to them representing poor value.
Randwick Race 8 #1 Redzel
No doubting the quality of this superstar sprinter, however his Everest victory and subsequent high profile means he is always well found in betting every time he goes around. As such the mugs are all over him every start, artificially compressing his price due to weight of investment. He would be the multi anchor leg for many mug punters across the nation and due to the expected investment, most bookmakers opened him up at a ridiculous $2.25.
In the run he will again be giving up his preferred leaders role to Jungle Edge, with other go forward horses Global Glamour, Trapeze Artist and Thronum all a chance to be vying for the lead. Due to this, the big risk for him is having to absorb pressure to find a position and then risk being pocketed, with a few of these likely to capitulate and drop back in his face. Will run well but is far too short in the market. Avoid.
Bendigo Race 1 #2 Harrison
Suspect a few will get suckered in by the famous Melbourne Cup winning colours of Lloyd Williams here early at Bendigo. This gelding does have some excellent form behind the brilliant Kings Will Dream at his last two, including a sixth in Flemington benchmark 90 company, before running second last start in the Mornington Cup.
That’s all very good, however the Sydney form a few of these should prove far superior and even if it does not, there is still plenty of depth elsewhere. The current $3.10 on offer for Harrison is just too skinny and well under the odds. Lay or wait for the market drift.