After only two weeks of the MLB regular season, patterns are already emerging.
This year’s contenders are starting to stand tall, whilst the lowly rebuilders already have one eye on future years.
The match of the day sees the New York Yankees face off against the Houston Astros, in what is an early season insight into a likely playoff fixture.
The Twins travel to New York to take on the Mets and then the Cardinals look to gather more momentum, with another win over National League favourites, the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Read on to see our MLB betting picks for the upcoming series match-ups.
The match of the day involves two pitchers eager to set their season on the right path after changes to their familiar surroundings.
With all the major signings during the off-season, James Paxton’s move from the Seattle Mariners to the Yankees seemed like an afterthought.
The Yankees were desperate to find more quality pitching after last year’s swift playoff exit and Paxton has filled that demand perfectly.
In 2018, Paxton had a regular season record of 11-6 with an ERA of 3.76. After assessing the statistics, pre All-Star break Paxton was one of the form pitchers in the competition having a record of 8-4. This run of form included a memorable no hitter against the Toronto Blue Jays.
The final out. James Paxton is the first Canadian to throw a no-hitter in his home country
It was after the All-Star match where Paxton started to tail off due to niggling injuries, placing him on the disabled list twice. Paxton will be hoping to avoid any injury concerns this year and make a statement within his new environment.
For the Astros, Collin McHugh has been promoted from the bullpen into the starting rotation to fill the void left by Dallas Keuchel.
In his second start of the season against Oakland, McHugh put in a nice performance throwing six innings of one-run ball while striking out four batters.
Additionally, Collin will be looking forward to facing a Yankees team who has broken the record for most strikeouts this early in a season.
Key MLB Statistics:
In his 4 match-ups against the Astros last year, Paxton excelled going 4-0 with a 2.05 ERA. Additionally, over his 12 career starts against Houston he is 7-3 with a 2.89 ERA.
Collin McHugh is 5-0 with a 1.18 ERA in his last eight starts at Minute Maid Park since 2016
MLB Betting Pick: Under 8.5 runs @ $1.74
Reasoning: Both of these pitchers have impressive statistics for this match-up. If history repeats, this should be a low scoring and tightly contested match between two contenders in the American League.
The Minnesota Twins are off to a great start in 2019, mainly attributed to some impressive pitching performances. However, Jake Odorizzi hasn’t been able to lay claim to one of those.
Regarded as the second best pitcher in the Twins rotation, his first two games have been interrupted by weather affected games.
In his last game, Odorizzi lasted only two outs and 36 pitches while conceding five runs to the Phillies. As a result, he now holds a 6.75 ERA, which will no doubt be an outlier come season’s close.
He will be highly motivated to put things right here, in what shapes as a big battle of pitching against Noah Syndergaard.
As mentioned in our pre-season preview of the American League, the Twins have significantly improved their batting line-up this year and the results are showing. The team currently ranks 4th overall for AL teams, with a batting average of .256.
Noah ‘Thor’ Syndergaard has had a rusty start to the season by his high standards.
Interestingly this will be Syndegaard’s first career start against the Twins, one of only eight teams he is yet to face. As a result, the Twins batters have no previous experience to draw on when facing his pitching.
Statistics from past matchups suggest that Thor is set for a strong pitching performance here.
Key MLB Statistics:
Odorizzi only allowed one run in 6 ? innings in his only career start against the Mets
Free MLB Pick: Minnesota Twins +1.5 @ 1.85
Reasoning: Expect a big bounceback performance from Odorizzi here. This will be close given Thor’s ability, but the Twins will relish the opportunity to continue their hot start to the year in this big match-up.
The Los Angeles Dodgers are the hottest team in baseball.
Not only do they have a young pitching core which is excelling under pressure, but their batting line up is mashing home runs at an astronomical rate.
Before this current series, the Dodgers convincingly swept the Rockies. This left them with a competition leading +36 run differential through their first ten games.
Kenta Maeda takes the mound in this upcoming match-up against the Cardinals and will be looking to set things right after the St Louis outfit clinched the first two games of the series.
Maeda currently holds a 2-0 record, but his latest victory was shaky at best after he nearly blew a five run lead.
The Cardinals will once again go to their number two pitcher, Jack Flaherty, in an attempt to win three-straight.
Flaherty failed to pitch beyond the fifth in either of his first two starts, mostly due to elevated pitch counts.
Look for him to throw more first-pitch strikes against the Dodgers in an attempt to reduce this pitch count.
This may prove to be a double edged sword for Flaherty however, with the Dodgers batters likely to be aware of this tactic and aim to latch onto him early.
Key MLB Statistics:
Cody Bellinger currently has more home runs (7) than strikeouts (6)
Free MLB Pick: St Louis Cardinals @ 1.92
Reasoning: From what has played out so far in this series, the Cardinals have the Dodgers covered defensively. They have managed to subdue Bellinger and Co. into a lot of ground balls and limit their power hitters.
The price on offer is great value for their hot run to continue
Apr 10, 2019 12:57 PM
AAP
Key MLB Statistics:
MLB Betting Pick: Under 8.5 runs @ $1.74
