Analyst: Alex Christodoulou
May 03, 2019 05:24 PM
Desperate Dees to turn things around
Round 7 resumes on Friday night, when the Pies and Power play for their fifth win of 2019.
Then it's GWS and St Kilda's turn to shoot for win number five, when they lock horns in the nation's capital.
But the big story is Melbourne. Can they pick themselves off the canvas when they face rivals Hawthorn on Saturday afternoon?
Before placing your AFL bets on these games, read our previews and AFL betting tips below.
Collingwood Magpies vs Port Adelaide Power
AFL Odds: Magpies $1.33 (-18.5) / Power $3.18 (+18.5)
It's a Friday night kick-off for the opening game of Round 7, when Port face the unenviable task of taking on the red-hot Pies.
Port Adelaide are in good form themselves, having won two on the bounce including a boilover away to West Coast.
Collingwood meanwhile will be looking to make it four in a row with a win here.
If they replicate the intensity that saw them prevail in last week's ANZAC day clash, then they'll prove too strong here.
Why Magpies can win
After six weeks of the 2019 season, Collingwood are only shaded by the Cats as the form side of the competition.
Their two defeats came against high-quality opposition in West Coast and Geelong, while they've won all the games they should be winning.
This is another of those games, so if the form is anything to go by, then the Pies should win handsomely.
They also have a star-studded midfield, where two or three of their players could drop a level and still have too much firepower.
It was captain Scott Pendlebury who stood up last week, his 38 disposals earning him the ANZAC medal.
Why Power can win
While Port finally put in a strong home performance in Round 6, coach Ken Hinkley would've been furious with how his team finished the match.
They fell asleep in the final term, and conceded the final five goals of the game to set up an unnecessarily nervy finish.
If they continue their fourth-quarter form into this clash, then they'll get their backsides handed to them.
However, Port have shown countless times in the past that they get up for the games when the AFL odds are against them.
The upset-kings have plenty of hard-heads who could match the Pies in the middle of the park.
Key AFL Stats
- Port Adelaide have covered the line in 10 of their last 11 interstate games as underdog: Power to cover the +18.5 point line @ $2
- The favourite has won each of Collingwood's previous 10 games at Marvel Stadium: Pies to win @ $1.33
- Jordan De Goey has been 1st goal-scorer in all of the Magpies' past 3 night matches: De Goey to kick first goal @ $6.50
AFL Betting Tip:
Port Adelaide to cover the +18.5 point line @ $2
Reasoning: Even with gun forward Robbie Gray ruled out with a broken hand, this is a big line for a team with Port Adelaide's tendency to lift a gear as underdogs.
GWS Giants vs St Kilda Saints
AFL Odds: Giants $1.22 (-30.5) / Saints $4 (+30.5)
The Giants are back in Canberra for this clash, where they'll welcome a stung St Kilda side to town.
GWS will be full of confidence after a dominant victory in the Sydney derby last week.
They'll also be keen to get back to winning ways at Manuka Oval, after their 9-game winnings streak at the ground was snapped by the Dockers last time.
St Kilda face a formidable task, but aren't without a hope if they return to the form that saw them claim big scalps in rounds 4 and 5.
Why Giants can win
Toby Greene showed just how good he is against the Swans last week, with 3 goals and a whopping 10 score involvements in his first game back from a calf-tear.
You'd think he'll only improve from that performance and cause plenty of damage up front alongside the Coleman medallist leader, Jeremy Cameron.
GWS's depth has been tested in recent years, and that looks like it'll be the case once again.
Both Lachie Whitfield and Stephen Coniglio are expected to sit out after picking up minor injuries.
Whitfield's elite running capacity will be especially missed on the big Manuka Oval ground.
Why Saints can win
It's been St Kilda's defence that has been getting the job done for them, and why they've already recorded 4 wins in 2019.
But without injured captain and defender Jarryn Geary, the Saints leaked a season-high 97 points against the Crows in Round 6.
Geary will be sidelined for a while, so the Saints will have to learn to organize down back without him.
With queries still around their ability to score, it's hard to see St Kilda kicking enough goals to win here.
Only a defensive masterclass would get them over the line, and against the likes of Greene and Cameron, this will be tough.
Key AFL Stat
- St Kilda have lost 7 of their last 8 AFL games outside of Melbourne: GWS to win @ $1.22
AFL Betting Tip:
Giants to cover the -30.5 point line @ $1.90
Reasoning: They have too much quality for a Saints side that struggle on the road.
Melbourne Demons vs Hawthorn Hawks
AFL Odds: Demons $2.05 (+4.5) / Hawks $1.76 (-4.5)
It's starting to get desperate for the Dees.
A 1-5 start to their season doesn't bode well, and if they can't start stringing the wins together soon, they'll be missing out come September.
Hawthorn will fancy their chances of piling more misery on Simon Goodwin's men.
But after only just getting the better of the Blues last week, they'll also need to show an improvement here.
Why Demons can win
It just goes from bad to worse for Melbourne, whose recent 43-point defeat to Richmond was soured by a shoulder injury to co-captain Jack Viney.
Viney has been one of the bright lights for the Dees in 2019. Without him, their other leaders will need to stand up.
But with the likes of Christian Petracca, Clayton Oliver and Angus Brayshaw in their side, it's only a matter of time before the Demons turn things around.
They were competitive for most of the game last week, before being blown away in the final term.
That desire to compete bodes well for this clash.
Why Hawks can win
Hawthorn were uncharacteristically sloppy against Carlton in Round 6, where they trailed by as much as 36 before storming back to prevail by 5 points.
Liam Shiels' quality really came to the fore, booting three goals and recording 26 disposals in a complete performance from the half-forward line.
Jaeger O'Meara was also immense with 42 touches, as he looks to fill the void left by Tom Mitchell's injury.
And don't forget that it was Melbourne who knocked the Hawks out of the finals series in 2018.
Revenge will be on Alastair Clarkson's mind, and he will have no difficulty motivating his players here.
Key AFL Stat
- Hawthorn have lost 4 of their past 5 AFL games at the MCG: Melbourne to win @ $2.05
AFL Betting Tip:
Melbourne to win @ $2.05
Reasoning: There were positive signs against the Tigers that things are about to change for the Demons.
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