At times, the market has a tendency to often miss-price a team where a significant adjustment to the odds is required in relation to motivation.
This heighted force of motivation can be due to a variety of factors, many of which will shape a team’s willingness to extend their effort beyond the normal parameters.
The below factors can often be difficult to quantify for bookies:
Win/Loss profile
Negative media focus
Coach under pressure
Comfort zone traits (complacency due to recent successes)
Other Internal club factors
Each week we will identify an AFL or NRL selection representing a good value bet, based on what the team has at stake and/or has experienced during their weekly build up. This results in a perceived presence of an abnormal spike in motivation on match day.
This week's Betting Tip
Newcastle Knights v Melbourne Storm Bet: Line Newcastle +10.5 @ 1.90
Love the profile of Newcastle here coming off a painful 2-point loss to the Roosters and taking on competition glamour club Melbourne Storm.
The Storm had their biggest build up to a match this season last week, with the hype and expectation surrounding their clash with the Broncos and the added spice considering the bitter battle between Craig Bellamy and Wayne Bennett.
I am convinced last week's Broncos fixture at AAMI Park has taken plenty out of the tank for both Storm coach and players, and suspect the foot will have come off the accelerator mentally down South during this week's preparations, considering they won and take on a lowly Newcastle.
Can imagine the Storm player group will be lacking the spark required to be up for this one and the associated mundane Newcastle road trip.
Conversely, Newcastle will be highly motivated to put in a big performance against the competition hot shots, in front of a parochial Newcastle home crowd where they are 10:7 against the Storm at MacDonald Stadium.
An early season Storm drubbing (40-14) will also add a steely edge to the Newcastle player group this week.
The 10.5 start will be enough to get punters home here, even with key forward Burhrer out.
Jun 14, 2018 05:24 PM
This week's Betting Tip
