In 2006 after the Maroons clinched the Origin series, New South Welshman were whining that QLD wouldn't have won if wasn't for the great Darren Lockyer.
Much to the delight of Blues fans, the great five-eighth was ruled out for the 2008 series and QLD handed a debut spot to promising young Melbourne Storm winger Israel Falou. Any doubts over how the Queensland team would handle the loss of Lockyer were quickly erased, as Falou played a significant hand in the Maroons third consecutive series win.
When 2009 rolled around, the NSW selectors raised eyebrows by picking a new halves combination for Game 1, Terry Campese and Peter Wallace. It didn't take long for the axe to fall on the pair with Trent Barrett and Brett Kimmorley called-up to replace them in Game Three in a bid to salvage a 3-0 white wash.
Before Origin 2011 started, QLD had won five consecutive series. Blues fans held a small glimmer of hope as Folau exited the QLD side to pursue his AFL ambitions. Enter Darius Boyd who filled the void left by Folau. Cooper Cronk also entered the Origin fold in the same year and together they added enough venom to secure a sixth series win-in-row for Queensland.
Following the 2011 series Darren Lockyer decided to call it a day, but the Maroons were ready for his departure. Jonathan Thurston shifted to five-eighth and Cronk slotted into the number seven jersey.
From 2012, the illustrious group of Billy Slater, Greg Inglis, Jonathan Thurston, Cameron Smith and Cooper Cronk would go on to dominate, beating the Blues in five of the next six series, with only one blemish in Queensland's amazing run of wins, when NSW won the 2014 series.
Fast forward to today and QLD once again finds themselves with a gaping hole to fill. Greg Inglis will be the only remaining player to run onto the MCG for Game One from the illustrious group following the retirements of Smith, Thurston, Cronk and the injury to Slater. There appears to be no backup plan in place this time around however.
The Blues rookie coach Brad Fittler steps back into the Origin cauldron, an arena he once dominated as a player, and appoints eleven debutants for game one, putting form over reputation and big game experience.
Fittler has opted for a fresh blood policy and avoided the recall of players who carry mental scars and the burden of being a part of the QLD 'whipping boys' for over a decade.
This leaves Punters with a very different Origin landscape in 2018 and more questions than before any series in the past decade. Will the Maroons' culture reign supreme again despite the significant hole created with retirements and injury?
Their will to win and Origin experience on the park buoyed by a Melbourne crowd that will undoubtedly support them to the final whistle.
Or, will the Blues' fresh faces and new coaching regime provide the much needed change to flip the power base in this historical clash?
Origin at the MCG
Game two of 2015 saw a record-breaking attendance of 91,513.
NSW have won three of their four games held at the MCG.
The average total points scored in Origin games played at the MCG equates to 29.75.
In 1995, we witnessed Jimmy Sedaris ignite one of the most famous State of Origin brawls, watch below as the haymakers are thrown.
Key Matchups
The Backs
Latest NRL stats reveal that the Maroons backline has averaged 2.24 missed tackles per game, with Ben Hunt the standout missing 3.75 tackles on average.
The Blues' backline has averaged 1.63 missed tackles per game, with James Maloney a turnstile averaging 5.75.
Josh Ado-Carr leads the NRL in try-scoring this season with 12, whilst QLD flyer Valentine Holmes has scored 11.
The Forwards
The Blues forwards standout in some key areas, dominating average run metres, average post contact metres, tackle breaks and offloads.
The Maroons forwards lead the way in tackle efficiency by 1%
The Bench
The Blues' bench also gets the upper hand, with higher average run metres, post contact metres, tries scored and tackle efficiency.
Our Verdict
NSW have the form players in the NRL with some key stats in their favour. For the first time in recent memory, NSW will go into Game One as legitimate favourites.
Expect the loss of Smith, Cronk, Thurston and now Slater to prove too great a hurdle to overcome for the Maroons.
The Blues have plenty of combinations to call upon and will be steered around the park by Panthers halves Maloney and Cleary. They'll be looking for opportunities to link up with the dangerous Roosters connection of Tedesco, Cordiner and Mitchell.
Throw in the Trbojevic brothers, three in-form Dragons forwards as well as South Sydney's Damien Cook and Angus Crichton, and it's hard to imagine how the quality and form of these 11 debutants won't overcome the risk of them imploding under the pressure.
If QLD is to be competitive, they'll need a massive performance from their halves, Cameron Munster and Ben Hunt. In years gone by, Thurston and Cronk managed to win the arm wrestle with their dominant kicking games. If Munster or Hunt fail to find the mark with their kicks, it will be curtains for the Maroons.
With Origin games at the MCG historically being low scoring affairs, given the greasy conditions, expect the Blues to get home in a tight one.
Betting Tip: Blues to win by a margin of 1-12 @ $2.40
Jun 06, 2018 07:01 PM
AAP
