Can the Cockroaches finally emerge from Origin darkness?
After more than ten years of Origin series misery- Jarryd Hayne jumping into the Blatchy's Blues in 2014 the one exception- the Cockroaches get their chance once again to snap the Cane Toads' dominance and emerge from a decade of Origin darkness.
It shapes as a case of deja vu for NSW fans as it was only this time last year that the Blues were up 1-0 in the series and going into their home game full of confidence and ready to break the Maroons' back.
But then QLD did what QLD do, pinching the game on enemy soil and then crushing NSW in the decider at Suncorp to send Thurston and Cronk out on a high.
With game three this year to be Billy Slater's swan song, you can be sure that a 1-1 series scoreline heading to Suncorp will be panic stations for the Blues camp.
Put simply, the Blues must win.
Anything but a victory on Sunday would be a bitter-pill overdose for NSW fans. It would be too much to bare. Brad Fittler doesn't need to remind his new generation of Blues how much their fans need a series win, having grown up in the period of QLD domination themselves.
As with every Origin game, both sides will need no motivation to get them up for the game. Like always, it will come down to which team executes with the pressure on.
Where Game 1 was Won and Lost
It was a sea of blue for NSW in all the key statistical areas at the MCG.
The definite feature of Game 1 was how many tackles the Maroons missed, especially up the middle of the park. These linebreaks behind the ruck directly led to two NSW tries.
James Tedesco was the main perpetrator for the Blues, making 17 tackle breaks alone.
The kicking game of Johnathan Thurston was sorely missed by QLD in Game 1, with the Blues' halves kicking 250 metres more than their rival pairing.
The Forward Battle
Expect this to be another typical, low-scoring game at ANZ Stadium, where the forward packs are extra-crucial. At times in Game 1, the QLD forwards got on top, with the Blues pack struggling to get the ball out of their own half.
By just taking overly safe one-out hit-ups, the Blues forwards were gang tackled and driven back, especially in the second half.
Most of the pack including Jack De Belin, Paul Vaughan and Angus Crichton failed to have the impact they have at club level. Now that they have had a taste of what Origin football is all about, they should rise to a new level in game two.
The Maroons' starting pack did a fantastic job for the most part in Game 1, with Felise Kaufusi and Josh McGuire both standouts, going forward and in defence.
QLD's ruck defence is what Kevin Walters must address heading into Game 2. Damien Cook made far too many in roads through the middle and the Blues' outside backs were able to capitalise on the back of quick play-the-balls.
There is no doubt that the Blues backline dominated at the MCG.
Tedesco, James Maloney and Tom Trbojevic all produced moments of magic that proved the difference in the end. If Latrell Mitchell and James Roberts can lift their standard even slightly heading into Game 2, they will surely prove too much to handle for their opposite numbers.
Apart from Valentine Holmes' 80m intercept try and his darting runs from dummy half, the Maroons' backs just appeared to be missing spark in attack. That will all change on Sunday however, with the injection of either Billy Slater or Kalyn Ponga (or possibly both) to the QLD line-up.
This duo is very much indicative of the old and the new for the Maroons, and QLD fans will be licking their lips at the prospect of seeing them both start on Sunday night.
Nathan Cleary and James Maloney will be once again looking to lead their team around the park and be on hand to provide a quality polish to the the end of sets.
One of the key factors to their success in Game 1 was playing instinctive footy off the back of the ruck, rather than having to engineer points on fifth tackle plays.
The home ground factor
Origin games at ANZ Stadium have historically been tight and dour affairs. This will ironically play into QLD's hands, as they have fewer points in them.
If the game degenerates into a slug-fest, you'd back the Maroons to come up with another typical QLD moment, despite missing their familiar faces.
Although there is no rain forecast for game day, it has been a wet week in Sydney. This will take the sting out of the pitch and play into the forwards' hands, potentially limiting the influence of the backs.
ANZ Stadium key stats:
In the last 6 Origin games at Homebush, the highest winning margin has been 4 points.
The average total match points for these 6 games is 22 points.
Origin Betting Tip
QLD to cover the +8.5 line @ $1.90
Reasoning: The home advantage doesn't necessarily favour the Blues, with the template of close games at ANZ set to continue.
QLD will have more point-scoring threats in Game 2 and with a tightening of their ruck defence, don't expect the Blues to have it all their own way again.
Jun 22, 2018 07:01 PM
AAP
