This week's selection features a classic motivation profile from a team desperate to quiet speculation, up against opponents who are coming off an intense and high profile week, where they were lauded for their recent performance.
A classic “banana skin” game for the pin-up boys Richmond this round against Adelaide, following the high intensity build up and game day of the Swans fixture last week.
They won well on that occasion and the media have been right to gush over their talents and competition domination since the game.
The problem with this scenario is that members of the playing group actually start to believe the hype and see themselves as invincible.
This breeds the classic banana skin profile and can cause players to let their guard down, as was seen following their Round 11 victory against Essendon which preceded their Round 12 loss to Port Adelaide.
Bookies are already pricing in the expected mug money investment with rank and file punters, who will be pushing each other out of the way down at the local pub to anchor this week's multi bet with Richmond as their “sure thing”.
Typically, this will more often than not lead to an anomaly in the market place with the other side representing value to the shrewder punter.
Bookies know they will struggle to lay Adelaide and will be much closer to the betting exchange price on that side of the equation, compared to the Richmond lay exchange price, which will be miles away.
Adelaide are also coming off the back of a win, however they know this match represents the best opportunity to silence those scribes baying for blood, in relation to their infamous pre-season, which according to the media “has completely fractured this playing group”.
This media savagery has persisted all season and whilst the home win last week was a step in the right direction for the Crows, nothing would be sweeter than to prove their worth on the biggest stage against the best at the MCG on Saturday.
Whilst a win may not eventuate, 30.5 points will be far too many for Richmond to reel in against a more highly motivated Crows player group.
AFL Betting Tip: Adelaide Crows to cover the +30.5 line @ $1.85
Jul 05, 2018 03:02 PM
AFL Betting Tip: Adelaide Crows to cover the +30.5 line @ $1.85
