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Author: TaylorRoberts
Oct 27, 2017 03:04 AM
Your betting guide to the 2017 Rugby League World Cup
The Rugby League World Cup kicks off on Friday in Melbourne with Australia taking on England in the tournament opener. Eligibility criteria has once again been the main talking point in the lead up to the tournament as minnow nations have scrambled to claim NRL players as their own. Some of the biggest names in the game have pledged their allegiance to non-native countries, with a family holiday proving sufficent evidence for a player to get a jersey with a second-tier nation.
One of the positives to come from these loose eligibility rules has been the spreading of playing talent throughout the competition, creating some intriguing match-ups in the pool stages. We've compiled a team-by-team guide and identified the best value bets for each team to consider when having a punt on the tournament.
GROUP A
AUSTRALIA Prediction: Winner
Captain: Cameron Smith
Coach: Mal Meninga
What you need to know:
Let’s not kid ourselves, it would take an outbreak of the bubonic plague throughout the Kangaroos camp to prevent them from lifting the trophy on December 2.
Key Player: Cameron Smith - no more superlatives left for the The Dally M player of the year, he will be a key leader for the side which is missing Thurston, Scott and Inglis.
Player to watch: Cameron Munster - after having a stellar season for the Storm, Munster will link up with his big three sidekicks again and if his origin debut is anything to go by, he won’t be overawed by the occasion. Meninga is expected to use him off the bench and in rotation with Morgan for the starting five eighth role.
Best value bet: Valentine Holmes Tournament Top Try Scorer. $7
- His try scoring record as a winger speaks for itself; 19 tries in 26 games for the sharks in 2016 and four tries in two games for Queensland this year.
- With Australia expected to make the final, Holmes will see plenty of minutes in the tournament.
ENGLAND Prediction: Runner Up
Captain: Sean O’Loughlin
Coach: Wayne Bennet
What you need to know
- Haven't made a World Cup final since 1995.
- Leeds Rhinos winger Ryan Hall has an impressive try scoring record at international level having scored 23 tries in 26 games.
Key Player: Sam Burgess - expect Burgess to lead from the front with and without the ball. Along with James Graham, Burgess will be looking to make a big statement in the opening game against the Aussies.
Player to watch: Luke Gale - The winner of the 2017 Man of Steel award for the Super Leagues best player, Gale is a game breaker and has attracted interest from NRL clubs. He can find the try line, having scored 14 tries in the Super League last season.
Best value bet: England to make the final. $2.20
- Being in Australia’s pool means England avoids playing the Kangaroos and New Zealand in the semi-final.
- An experienced test team flooded with top NRL talent. Expect Wayne Bennett to get the best out of them.
LEBANON - Prediction: Quarter Finals
Captain: Robbie Farah
Coach: Brad Fittler
What you need to know
Majority of team is made up from players in NSW cup.
Key Player: Mitchell Moses - playing alongside Farah in the halves, the Lebanese side will be heavily reliant on Moses to provide some spark attack.
Player to watch: Alex Twal - a skilfull young forward who made his debut for the Tigers in Round 17. There are big wraps on him having played Junior Kangaroos last year.
Best value bet: To beat France in their opening fixture. $2.10
A team with experienced NRL players like Farah, Moses, Mannah and Lichaa, expect Lebanon to cause an upset against an in-experienced French team in their first game.
FRANCE Prediction: Pool Stages
Captain: Theo Fages
Coach: Aurellien Cologni
What you need to know
With only a handful of Super League players, they have a clear lack of experience in their squad.
Key Player: Theo Fages - the 23 yr old St Helens half back has aleady played 113 games in the Super League and will need to show all of that experience to get the best out of his side.
Best value bet: France eliminated in Pool Stage. $2.25
Not enough quality in the side.
GROUP B
NEW ZEALAND Prediction: Semi Final, third
Captain: Adam Blair
Coach: David Kidwell
What you need to know
- Missing key players Keiran Foran, Jesse Bromwich and Kevin Proctor.
- Won only two of their past ten test matches.
Key Player: Shaun Johnson - a former golden boot winner, Shaun Johnson will have to be at his very best to help the Kiwis win their second World Cup. With either Te Maire Martin or Kodi Nikorima expected to fill Kieran Foran’s five eighth role, all the responsibility will rest on Johnson's shoulders to steer the team around the park.
Player to watch: Nelson Asofa-Solomona – with a break out year for the Storm this year, Asofa-Solomona finished the season as one of the in-form front rowers in the NRL averaging over 100 running meters per game. Expect him to fill the void of former captain Jesse Bromwich.
Best Value Bet: New Zealand Group B winner. $1.62
- Despite having a tough pool containing little brothers Tonga and Samoa, there is good value for the Kiwis to go through undefeated in the group stages. Playing in front of their home crowd should be enough to get them through unscathed.
- Throughout each of the past three World Cups, the Kiwis have only lost games to Australia.
TONGA Prediction: Semi Final, fourth
Captain: Sika Manu
Coach: Kristian Woolf
What you need to know
- Bolstered by some big-name inclusions, Tonga has the most star studded line up out of all the minnow nations, meaning a semi-final berth is very much on the radar.
- Their backline contains three recent members of the Blues squad in Will Hopoate, Daniel Tupou and Michael Jennings as well as ex Kiwi representatives Konrad Hurrell and ManuVatuvei.
Key Player: Jason Taumalolo - the inclusion of the most damaging ball runner in the game has significantly enhanced Tonga’s prospects of making their first ever semi-final.
Player to watch: Ata Hingano - plenty of responsibility for the young Warriors half, who will need to steer this talented team around the paddock and take control of games when required. He played in the shadow of Johnson and Foran all season and now gets the opportunity to show that he's ready to make the step up.
Best value bet: Michael Jennings Tonga's top team try scorer. $7
- Jennings has scored 9 tries in 10 test matches for both Tonga and Australia.
- He'll be looking to pick up from where he left off with the Eels, having scored six tries in his final five games of the season.
SAMOA Prediction: Quarter Finals
Captain: Frank Pritchard
Coach: Matt Parish
What you need to know
In a tough pool with Tonga and New Zealand.
Key Player: Josh Papalii - some may consider him unlucky not to have made the Australian squad, the aggressive back rower will be a major weapon for Samoa’s left edge.
Player to watch: Joey Leilua - on his day he is one of the most damaging centres in the game. The Samoans will be hoping for a big tournament from their gun outside back and you can be sure that if they get the opportunity to meet Australia, Leilua will be looking to make a statement after being snubbed for a Blues jersey this year.
Best value bet: Samoa eliminated in quarter finals. $1.80
Reasoning
Likely to lose to the Kiwis and Tonga, Samoa will only need to beat Scotland to advance through to the Quarter Finals where they will play the winner of Group A, Australia.
SCOTLAND - Prediction: Pool Stages
Captain: Danny Brough
Coach: Steve McCormack
What you need to know
- Pulled off a draw against the Kiwis in last year's four nations tournament.
- If trial form is anything to go by however, things aren't looking good for the Scots as they were defeated 50-14 by NSW Country under 23’s.
Key Player: Danny Brough - the Huddersfield halfback is the linchpin for this Scottish team and most experienced with 20 caps.
Best value bet: Matty Russell top team try scorer. $5.00
Five tries from 7 test matches for Scotland, the speedy Warrington Wolves winger knows how to find the try line for both club and country.
GROUP C
PAPUA NEW GUINEA Prediction: Quarter Finals
Captain: David Mead
Coach: Michael Marum
What you need to know
- Squad contains 10 players from the Queensland cup winning PNG Hunters team.
- Play all three pool games on home turf in Port Moresby.
Key Player: David Mead - most experienced player and captain, Mead will be the calming influence over this PNG team and provide stability from fullback.
Player to watch: James Segeyaro - the Kumuls have opted to carry four hookers in their squad for their first game against Wales, with Segeyaro undoubtedly the most dangerous of them all. He's had a disrupted past two seasons but was showing signs of being back to his best with the Sharks in the final rounds of last season.
Best value bet: PNG to cover the line (-16.5) vs Wales in their opening fixture. $1.91
- Lost to Australia by 16 points in a warm up game in Suva earlier this month.
- Playing in front of their fanatical home crowd.
IRELAND Prediction: Pool Stages
Captain: Liam Finn
Coach: Mark Aston
What you need to know
- Should beat Wales, their only chance of a win.
Key Player: Scott Grix - fullback for Wakefield in the Super League, an experienced player who will be the focal point in the Irish attack.
Best value bet: Shannon McDonnell Ireland top team try scorer. $5.00
- A speedy player with NRL experience, St Helens based McDonnell can play wing or fullback and has scored two tries in his three games for Ireland already.
WALES Prediction: Pool Stages
Captain: Craig Kopczack
Coach: John Kear
What you need to know
Key Player: Regan Grace - a shining light in a very average side, the young gun had a breakout year in the English Super League, scoring nine tries in sixteen appearances for St Helens.
Best Bet: Keep you money in your wallet.
GROUP D
FIJI Prediction: Quarter Finals
Captain: Kevin Naiqama
Coach: Michael Potter
What you need to know
- Reached semi-finals in the last two world cups, losing both times to Australia.
Key Player: Jarryd Hayne - will be wearing the number six jersey as he did for Fiji in the 2008 World cup when he took them all the way to the semi finals.
Player to watch: Apisai Koroisau - one of the most dynamic rakes in the NRL, Koroisau was a revelation for Manly in 2017 and will be getting the Fijians over the advantage line with his darting runs from dummy half.
Best value bet: Suliasi Vunivalu Fiji top team try scorer. $3.50
46 Tries in 47 matches in the NRL says it all. Expect Fiji to be doing everything they can to give Vunivalu the ball.
ITALY Prediction: Pool Stages
Captain: Mark Minichiello
Coach: Cameron Ciraldo
What you need to know
- This side will score points with Terry Campese and James Tedesco in the backline.
- Winger Josh Mantellato is a goal kicking freak, having a 82% strike rate in this year's NSW Cup.
Key Player: James Tedesco - unlucky not to be included in the Australian squad, Tedesco is one of the most dangerous backs in the game.
Player to watch: Nathan Brown (great Italian name) - the Parramatta Eels player of they year joins a very capable forward pack and will look to carry his NRL form into the World Cup. Hard running with dangerous offload.
Best value bet: James Tedesco, team top try scorer. $2.00
Tedesco has scored 50 tries in 90 games in the NRL. He is without a doubt Italy's most dangerous player and outside Terry Campese, he will see plenty of the pill.
USA Prediction: Pool Stages
Captain: Mark Offerdahl
Coach: Brian McDermott
What you need to know
Key Player: Eddy Pettybourne - the most experienced player in the side. Pettybourne will have a huge job leading this USA team.
Best value bet: Donald Trump to make an appearance off the bench is more likely than the USA winning a game.
