We've found the value in the run home to finals footy
With four rounds of the NRL regular season to play, it's well and truly crunch time.
Finals footy is in the air and with the top eight all but locked down, those teams who are bound for September are currently jostling for a top four position.
Only two points separate the fourth placed Dragons and eighth placed Warriors.
As we enter the final furlong of the regular season, we've assessed each team's chances and scoured the bookies' NRL odds to help steer punters into some value whilst it's still on offer.
The run home - Cowboys (A), Rabbitohs (H), Roosters (A), Sea Eagles (H)
Prediction - W - L - L - W
There is more chance of predicting Saturday's Lotto than predicting how the Broncos will end their season.
Just as they look set to make a strong run into finals footy after a win over the Sharks in Round 20, last week they produced an absolute shocker against the lowly ranked Bulldogs.
Brisbane have a strong forward pack, but their halves lack the experience and composure needed to compete in the finals footy.
St George Illawarra Dragons - Ladder Prediction 7th - 30 points
The run home - Eels (A), Tigers (A), Dogs (H), Knights (A)
Prediction - L - L - L - W
The Dragons come into round 22 off the back of consecutive losses and now face the fired-up Eels, who are coming off a strong win.
On paper, the Dragons have the most comfortable draw of any top-eight team in the run home to the finals, but on current form they'll struggle to win a game.
Coach Paul McGregor has shown an inability to adapt mid-season in recent years, which allows opposition coaches to gain insight into his structured game plan.
Blessed with an all-star forward pack, you'd hope the Dragons will find some form before week one of the finals.
The run home - Storm (A), Cowboys (H), Knights (H), Bulldogs (A)
Prediction - L - W - W - W
The Sharks have been less than convincing in their past two games, going down to Brisbane away and Manly at home.
A loss to the Storm in round 22 will make it three losses in-a-row, which will ensure the Sharks miss out on a top-four spot and face sudden-death footy in week one of the finals.
Boasting a forward pack full of representative experience and a spine that has settled into their attacking structure, the Sharks have the team to go deep into the finals, but they currently lack the desire to get the job done.
The run home - Titans (A), Knights (H), Warriors (A), Storm (A)
Prediction - W - W - L - L
The Panthers have been heavily affected by injuries this season, but have shown great depth to compete week-in and week-out.
The bombshell decision for the club to part ways with coach Anthony Griffin earlier this week, came as a huge surprise despite the media speculation that the writing was on the wall.
Given there was clear player unrest caused by Griffin's presence at the helm, expect the Panthers to now have a new lease of life as they head towards September.
With two consecutive games against teams out of the top-eight, you'd expect the Panthers to carry some strong momentum into their final two games against top-eight sides.
Their final two games of the season are away from home and against quality teams. A win in one or both will almost guarantee a top-four spot.;
NRL Betting Tip
Panthers to make the Top 4 @ $2.50 - The Panthers should sit comfortably within the top-four at the end of round 23. However, with two tough games to finish the season, they'll need to be their best to claim a win. A clash with the Warriors in round 24 looks likely to determine their finishing position.
New Zealand Warriors - Ladder Prediction 4th - 34 points
The run home - Knights(A), Bulldogs(A), Panthers(H), Raiders(H)
Prediction - W - W - W - W
Off the back of a strong defensive showing against the Dragons last week, the Warriors now face off against two teams in the bottom-eight before heading home to take on the Panthers and Raiders.
A healthy Isaac Luke is the key for the Warriors and if he lines up in each of the last four games, they can sneak inside the top-four.
With a spine of Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, Blake Green, Shaun Johnson and Isaac Luke, New Zealand have the talent to make it all the way to the big dance.
NRL Betting Tip
Warriors to make the top 4 @ $9 - With the Dragons on the slide, the last final top-four position is up for grabs and the Warriors are in prime position to pounce. A round-24 clash with the Panthers will determine the fate of both teams' top-four hopes. Given that clash with Penrith is at home, the $9 looks great value for the Warriors to sneak into the top-four.
South Sydney Rabbitohs - Ladder Prediction 3rd - 38 points
The run home - Roosters (H), Broncos (A), Raiders (A), Tigers (H)
Prediction - L - W - W - W
The Bunnies are flying high off a come from behind win against the Storm last week.
Their round 22 clash with the Roosters is a danger game given they're coming off a peak performance.
More often than not a team will struggle to improve off a peak-performance, mostly due to complacency from their previous performance.
The return of Greg Inglis in round 23 is a huge boost for the Bunnies. Look for them to be winning three of their last four games, with for and against the likely decider to their Minor Premiership aspirations despite leading the NRL Statistics for most tries this season.
Sydney Roosters - Ladder Prediction 2nd - 38 points
The run home - Rabbitohs (A), Raiders (A), Broncos (H), Eels (A)
Prediction - W - W - W - W
The Roosters showed signs of weakness against a strong Cowboys forward pack last week.
It doesn't get any easier for the Chooks, with a next-up clash against the biggest forward pack in the league.
Their clash against the Bunnies will prove pivotal in their Minor Premiership aspirations.
The loss of Luke Keary until round 25 is a massive loss for the Chooks. However, the added size of Ryan Matterson at five-eighth does bolster their defensive line.
Look for the Roosters to win their last four games off the back of huge defensive performances, but fall short of the Minor Premiership on points differential.
The run home - Sharks (H), Eels (H), Titans (A), Panthers (H)
Prediction - W - W - W - W
Melbourne will look to bounce back from their loss to the Bunnies when they face the Sharks at home this week.
The Storm produced a poor defensive effort against Souths and you'd expect this to be a focus point for coach Craig Bellamy in the run to the finals.
Melbourne's success will rest heavily on the shoulders of Cameron Smith, Cameron Munster and Billy Slater. With the big three fit, expect the Storm to win their last four games and be a force come finals time.
NRL Betting Tip
Storm to win the Premiership @ 4 - The Storm have drifted in the betting market after their loss to the Bunnies. They were far from their best in this game and it should be viewed as the game they had to lose coming into the finals. $4 to win the comp is genuine value and if they string four wins together to end the regular season, they'll be $2.50 come week one of the finals.
Storm to win the Minor Premiership @ $2.50 - With a superior points differential and a soft run home, the Storm are a big chance of winning the Minor Premiership, but will need an ounce of luck. The Bunnies have four consecutive danger games and they could very easily drop one if their guard is down.
Aug 07, 2018 07:01 PM
AAP
NRL Betting Tip
