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Form Lay

Saturday racing Lays of the Day 29 February 2020


Mug Magnets

We went two-from-two in last week's edition of Lays of the Day, after back-markers Pandemic and Melody Belle fell victim to a notable leader bias at Caulfield. 

This week’s Lay selections focus on two runners that are both last start winners.

This factor alone will have the mug punters rusted on.

Both horses face very challenging speed maps and find races where they appear unsuited.

Expect a significant market drift for each runner close to start time.  

 

Flemington Race 4 #2 Sylvia’s Mother $2.50

Is likely to be over-bet here due to the last start win and a rapidly building profile with the mug punter.

I thought she was blessed in the run last time out, when she found the perfect midfield position in a fast run race at Caulfield.

She got all the breaks and was slung-shot into the race at an ideal time, before only just getting home. 

Jumping from gate 1 here, expect them to again race midfield. However this time, I doubt she gets the hot tempo to suit and will therefore struggle to make up ground. 

The race shape appears against her on this occasion and I expect the market to oppose her close to start time. Lay.  

 

Randwick Race 5 #4 Sweet Deal $3.00

Shouldn't have come up this short in the market, considering she jumped at $14 in Group 3 company last start in what appeared to be a much weaker race than this Group 2 clash.

There's no doubt she was impressive in that run, after travelling three wide with no cover and still managing to get the job done. However, that performance was certainly not expected and is likely to be an outlier. 

This is a deep field and she will need to peak up again to be winning.

I expect those horses drawn to her outside will add plenty of spice early and she will be forced to hunt up to take a position.

She looks likely to suffer traffic issues as the leaders tire and fall back in her face.

Look for those horses on fresh legs swooping wide from the back to hold the advantage in this race. Avoid.  

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