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Parramatta Eels Ferguson

NRL Betting Tips: The early games Round 3 Season 2019


Furgo eyes off familiar faces

Round 3 of the NRL resumes with the Dragons making the tough road trip to Suncorp Stadium, as they attempt to notch up their first win of the year. 

Both the Raiders and Knights will be looking to their defence to get the job done, when they do battle in the nation's capital.

All eyes will be on Blake Ferguson on Friday night, who will look to make a statement against his former club, with the hope of inspiring his Eels to a third-straight win.

 

Brisbane Broncos vs St George Illawarra Dragons

NRL Odds: Broncos $1.35 (-8.5) / Dragons $3.25 (+8.5)

The situation looks dire for the Dragons, who come in to this game as despised outsiders, with most expecting the Red V to be 0 and 3 to start the season. 

They are coming off one their worst second half performances in recent memory, where they went scoreless and saw the Bunnies pile on 28 points last week.

The Broncos meanwhile put in a dominant display at home, easily accounting for the Cowboys in Round 2. Expect a similar showing here.

 

Why Broncos can win

Brisbane demonstrated last week why so many are talking up their Premiership chances in 2019.

Their young forward pack had too much power for the Cowboys, outmuscling the likes of Jordan McLean and Matt Scott in the middle of the park.

Thomas Flegler was a standout off the bench, running for a game high 196 metres.

But the scary fact for St George is that the Broncos' strength lies in the speed and power of their Origin-hardened outside backs, who will give Paul McGregor plenty more headaches here. 

 

Why Dragons can win

The Dragons have proven they can compete against the Broncos and that an upset isn't beyond them. 

Ben Hunt was a standout when these two teams played last season, orchestrating two huge victories against his former side.

The Dragons won those two fixtures by 22 and 30 points respectively, in games where Hunt and Widdop were able to work off the back of their forward pack's domination.

NRL Betting Tip

But missing Frizell and De Bellin, the likes of Jacob Host and Blake Lawrie need to stand up and show that they can match it with the Broncs big men. 

 

NRL Stats Key NRL Stats
  • The underdog has won the first half in 8 of St George's last 9 games: Dragons to win the first half @ $2.78
  • Corey Oates has scored a try in each of Brisbane's past 5 Thursday night games: Oates to score at any time @ $1.57
  • The Broncos have won their last 8 night games against the Dragons at Suncorp Stadium: Brisbane to win @ $1.35
NRL Betting Tip NRL Betting Tip: Broncos to cover the -8.5 point line @ $1.90

Reasoning: Based on recent form, you couldn't tip anything else.

NRL Betting Tips 2018 media tipster champ: Broncos 

 

Canberra Raiders vs Newcastle Knights

NRL Odds: Raiders $1.70 (-2.5) / Knights $2.15 (+2.5)

Both the Raiders and Knights had positive starts to the season, before tasting defeat in Round 2.

These losses were against quality opposition in the Storm and Panthers respectively, so both sets of fans won't be disheartened, and will come to the game confident of a win.

This fixture is typically a try-fest, so it'll be the team whose defence in on song that will pick up the two points here. 

 

Why Raiders can win

Canberra weren't all that bad in last week's 12-point loss to Melbourne. 

After copping three tries to nil in the first half, the Raiders fought back hard in the second, winning the half with two tries to one.

In previous campaigns the Raiders might have given up, but this was a positive sign for Ricky Stuart's men, who look to have done plenty of defensive work in the offseason.

They didn't concede a single point in Round 1 against the Gold Coast, and are starting to buck the trend in recent seasons where the Green Machine would have to score a bunch of points to win.

They'll have to do it without standout forward Joe Tapine though, who is out with a broken thumb.

 

Why Knights can win

The Knights have also shown early signs that they can win off the back of their defence.

That was how they got the job done against the Sharks in Round 1, in a gritty and hard-fought display.

They repeated the effort against the Panthers, only just falling short by 2 points.

David Klemmer was immense in that game, proving he is an early contender for buy of the year. He made 198 running metres and 34 tackles, and didn't miss a single tackle all night.

However, it was slim pickings for the Knights forwards after that. They'll need to improve as a group to get the win here.

 

NRL Stats Key NRL Stats
  • Newcastle have lost 15 of their past 16 interstate games: Raiders to win @ $1.70
  • Each of the past 7 matches between these sides have gone over the total match points line: Over 38.5 total match points @ $1.90
  • The Raiders have won the first half in their previous seven Round 3 fixtures: Canberra to win the first half @ $1.74
 
NRL Betting Tip NRL Betting Tip: Canberra to win @ $1.70

Reasoning: It might be gritty or it could be by a margin, but the Raiders have shown enough in the first two games to be confident that they'll get the win at home.

NRL Betting Tips 2018 media tipster champ: Raiders

 

Parramatta Eels vs Sydney Roosters

NRL Odds: Eels $3.05 (+8.0) / Roosters $1.38 (-8.0)

Eels fans will be pinching themselves with the way they've started the season.

Their side has recorded two dominant wins that sees them sitting pretty in the second spot on the ladder.

Brad Arthur is surely hammering into his players not to get ahead of themselves, especially as they come up against the reigning premiers here.

The Tri-colours got back to their best in their first-half performance against the Sea Eagles last week. A repeat of that would see them get over the line here. 

 

Why Eels can win

The star man in Parramatta's opening two wins has been ex-Rooster Blake Ferguson, who is primed to have another huge game here against his former club.

Against the Dogs, Ferguson ran for just shy of 300 metres, made 10 tackle busts, scored 2 tries and assisted another in a complete performance from the wing.

Fijian flyer and the heir-apparent to Semi Radradra, Maika Sivo also impressed on the opposite wing, with his hard running and hard tackles.

If the Eels are to cause an upset, it'll be these wingers who will be leading the way, along with captain Clint Gutherson who has been superb in his preferred fullback position. 

 

Why Roosters can win

Cooper Cronk comes back into a side that showed why they are the reigning premiers last week, running in 22 points to nil in the first half.

Luke Keary was spectacular, his four try assists demonstrated he is more than capable of taking control when Cronk is absent.

The Eels will hope that Cronk coming back in will mess up Keary's mojo. But with high-quality players across over the park, the Chooks would have to dish up a stinker to taste defeat here.

 

NRL Stats Key NRL Stats
  • Each of the last 7 Friday night games at ANZ Stadium have been won by the underdogs: Parramatta to win @ $3.05
  • The home team has covered the line in 7 of the previous 9 match-ups between these sides: Eels to cover the +3.5 point line @ $1.90
  • The Roosters beat Parramatta by 34+ points both times they played them in 2018: Sydney to win by 34+ points @ $11
NRL Betting Tip NRL Betting Tip: Roosters to win by a margin of 1-12 points @ $3

Reasoning: The Tri-colours have the superior quality and should get the win. But Parramatta's form suggests that it will be close.

NRL Betting Tips 2018 media tipster champ: Roosters

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