At times, the market has a tendency to often miss-price a team where a significant adjustment to the odds is required in relation to motivation.
This heighted force of motivation can be due to a variety of factors, many of which will shape a team’s willingness to extend their effort beyond the normal parameters.
The below factors can often be difficult to quantify for bookies:
Win/Loss profile
Negative media focus
Coach under pressure
Comfort zone traits (complacency due to recent successes)
Other Internal club factors
Each week we will identify an AFL or NRL selection representing a good value bet, based on what the team has at stake and/or has experienced during their weekly build up. This results in a perceived presence of an abnormal spike in motivation on match day.
This week's Betting Tip
Port Adelaide V Richmond: Port Adelaide to win head-to-head @ $1.85
Port Adelaide came off the bye last week and went down fighting to Hawthorn in the regular Tasmanian fixture.
That will top them off nicely for this from a motivation angle, whereby the Port list should be salivating at the prospect of knocking off competition hot shots Richmond and smiting from the last start loss against the Hawks.
There is far more at stake for Port Adelaide here looking at ladder position as the Power sit precariously in 8th position, whilst the Tigers are high flying it up in 2nd.
Suspect Richmond could exhibit some complacency here following a soft game last week when thrashing Essendon. These easy wins can often be detrimental for a club the following week, especially with a high profile list that can easily start drinking the “kool aide” given any form of praise (the media have gushed about the Tigers performance all week).
Meanwhile the key out of gun midfielder Dusty Martin adds confidence to the Port Adelaide cause, as does the valuable home advantage of the Adelaide Oval.
Jun 07, 2018 02:52 PM
