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Cronulla Sharks Fifita Merrin

NRL Betting Tips Round 18 Preview: Key stats for Friday night footy

Tagged: NRL

Sharks are circling Panthers Cubs

Panthers v Sharks

NRL Odds: Penrith Panthers $1.90 (-0.5) / Cronulla Sharks $1.90 (+0.5)

The Panthers depth came to the fore in Round 17. Jarome Luai and his youthful Panthers team showed up the experienced Warriors line-up, in what was the most impressive victory by any club this season.  

Cronulla is a different beast to the Warriors however. The Sharks show up week in-week-out and will be well aware of what this talented Penrith side can produce.

The Sharks are fresh off a bye and will look to circle the young Panthers halves, coming off a career-best performance. 

Penrith have named Blues representatives James Maloney, Nathan Cleary and Tyrone Peachey on an extended bench. Don't be surprised if Maloney is rested for this match however coming off a gruelling schedule, with Cleary and Luai expected to partner in the halves. 

Look for a big game from Matt Prior who will have a point to prove this week after being left out of the NSW squad. 

The Sharks have named Maroons winger, Valentine Holmes, at fullback following his inspirational performance at Suncorp Stadium on Wednesday night. 

This game shapes as a low scoring encounter. Penrith has been relentless at home this season, conceding only 10 points per game at Panthers Stadium.

The Sharks haven't set the world on fire in attack, only averaging 17 points in their last four games. 

 

NRL Player In  Caleb Aekins (Panthers) Wade Graham (Sharks)

 

NRL Player Out  Dallin Watene-Zelezniak (Panthers) Scott Sorenson (Sharks)

 

NRL Weather Fine and 12 degrees forecast for Penrith. Expect to see a fast-paced game with some expansive footy to be played. 

 

Key match-up - the forward packs

Two of the most imposing forward packs in the league do battle at the foot of the mountains. Thanks to their strong and aggressive line running, the Panthers lead the way in post-contact metres, tackle breaks and have fewer errors in them.  

The Sharks forwards offer more of a creative hand, leading the offloads by a good margin. However, this creativity leads to more handling errors. 

All in all, these are two evenly matched forward packs. The pack that lays the best platform for their halves will come away with the two points. 

NRL Stats

NRL Stats Key NRL stats

  • Average points scored per game: Panthers 22 / Sharks 19.5
  • Average points conceded per game: Panthers 15.2 / Sharks 17.6
  • The Sharks have won four of their last five games against the Panthers

NRL Betting Stats Key NRL Betting Stats 

  • Of the Sharks 10 wins, 9 have been by a margin of 1-12:  Sharks 1-12 @ $3.25 
  • Valentine Holmes (2) leads the Panthers in first try scorers this season: Valentine Holmes first try scorer @ $12  
  • Games at Penrith Stadium in 2018 have averaged 33.6 total match points: Under match line of 35.5 points @ $1.90 

 

NRL Betting Tip  NRL Betting Tip: Sharks to win head-to-head @ $1.90  

Reasoning: Hard to go past the Sharks here.

With doubts over the Panthers line-up and a strong head-to-head record in favour of Cronulla, the $1.90 on offer looks a steal.

If the Panthers rest Maloney, the Sharks will start closer to $1.70. Happy to be with the Sharks at that price. 

 

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Knights v Eels 

NRL Odds: Newcastle Knights $2.05 (-1.5) / Parramatta Eels $1.80 (+1.5)

The Knights felt the early loss of Kalyn Ponga and Slade Griffin when going down to the Bulldogs last week.

Both players will be out for this clash, however the return of captain Mitchell Pearce will be a significant boost for the club. 

Parramatta impressed for 60 minutes against the Dragons, but in an all too familiar sight, couldn't take away the two points.

A near full strength side for the Eels should see them more than competitive in this game, but with only the three wins this season you can't be confident. 

The last clash between these two was in round 13, where the Knights dominated the Eels in a 30-4 point win at ANZ Stadium. 

 

NRL Player In  Mitchell Pearce (Knights), Daniel Saifiti (Knights), Nathan Ross (Knights), Nick Meaney (Knights), Tepai Moeroa 

 

NRL Player Out  Kalyn Ponga (Knights), Slade Griffin (Knights), Jack Cogger (Knights), Sam Stone (Knights), Will Smith (Eels)

 

NRL Weather Fine and 12 degrees forecast for Newcastle. Expect to see a fast-paced game with some expansive footy to be played. 

 

NRL Stats Key NRL stats

  • Points scored per game: Knights 17.8 / Eels 14.8
  • Points conceded per game: Knights 23.4 / Eels 26.8
  • The Knights have defeated the Eels in their last two encounters by an average of 22.5 points 

NRL Betting Stats Key Betting Stats 

  • The Eels have only covered the line at 25% this season -  Game line Knights +1.5 @$1.90
  • Of the Knights 6 wins, 5 have been by a margin of 1-12 - Knights 1-12 @$3.30 
  • Games at Macdonald Jones Stadium in 2018, average 43.1 points  - Over match line 40.5 points @$1.90 

 

NRL Betting Tip NRL Betting Tip: No Bet 

Reasoning: The stats point to the Knights in a high scoring match. However, it's hard to be confident as it's yet to be seen how they will handle the loss of Kalyn Ponga.

The return of Mitchell Pearce is huge boost for Newcastle, but he may take a few weeks to get back to his best. 

Parramatta has shown signs of life in recent rounds, but with three wins from 16 games, it's best to let them go around without your money on.  

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