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Soccer World Cup Trophy

Soccer World Cup Final 2018 Betting Preview: France vs Croatia


A David and Goliath battle for eternal glory

Every four years, the world converges to witness the greatest sporting event on Earth. The 32 nations who contested this year's World Cup in Russia have made it one to remember.

A crazy month of football that has seen 63 games, 30 countries eliminated, massive upsets, VAR, more than 160 goals, drama and passion, which now all boils down to one game.

France v Croatia at the Luzhniki Stadium in Moscow. 

The undoubted favourites and the Goliath of this battle is France. With a star-studded albeit youthful team, Les Bleus are looking to become the sixth nation to win the World Cup at least twice.

They come up against Croatia, the underdogs who with a population just over 4 million have already exceeded expectations and then some. 

Even though the giant they will have to overcome has a population 17 times greater than them, Croatia can't complain about a shortage of talent.

Real Madrid star and Croatia's captain Luka Modric is arguably the best player from either squad contesting the final.

Alongside his midfield partner in crime Ivan Rakitic, the Croats will fancy their chances of pulling off the upset.

 

Luka Modric                                                                                                         Source: AAP

Even though Rakitic was disappointing in Croatia's semi-final victory over the Three Lions, his passing quality will always pose the danger of unlocking any defence. 

While Croatia's strength is their creativity, France's supreme athleticism is how they have made it to the final.

The lightning speed of young star Kylian Mbappe in attack and the tireless running capacity of perennially underrated N'Golo Kante in the midfield has been at the forefront of everything good about the French.

Their coach Didier Deschampes has been constantly under fire for playing conservative football, evidently more concerned about getting results than scoring beautiful goals.

If Les Bleus can go one better than their heartbreaking extra time loss to Portugal in the final of Euro 2016, all these critiques will be forgotten.  

 

Where it will be won or lost  

Croatia are coming off three consecutive 120-minute games, winning twice on penalties and once in extra time. By contrast, France haven't gone to extra time once, getting the job done in regular time in each of their six games.

There are two ways of looking at this.

Firstly, after such a physical and emotional battle to even reach the final, the Balkans will simply run out of legs against France, and get ruthlessly exposed by the likes of Mbappe.

Soccer Tips

Kylian Mbappe                                                                                                   Source: AAP

 

Indeed, Luka Modric has covered a whopping 63km in this tournament, more than any other player. With a shorter back up to the final than France, Modric and his teammates will definitely go into this game with heavy legs.

However, another more optimistic angle to take is that winning three consecutive games in this fashion has imbued Croatia with a winning spirit that can't be repressed.

It's almost as if Croatia have been destined to win, with their superior quality and composure continually coming to the fore. 

And it's no exaggeration to extol the quality in the Croatian side. Aside from Modric and Rakitic, there are a host of others who play their club football in Europe's premier leagues. These players have all pooled their talents to devastating effects.

Croatia have scored 12 goals in Russia, 10 of which have come from open play.

Contrast this with the glut of attacking talent in the French squad, who have only scored 10 goals, 7 of these from open play.

 

Key contest

Antoine Griezmann v Ivan Perisic

The focal point of both teams' attacks, Griezmann and Perisic have improved with each game in Russia.

Griezmann has netted 3 goals, provided 8 shot assists and 2 goal assists amongst his passing and dribbling prowess.

A player who has an unrivaled understanding of the pace of the game, when to play quick and when to slow it down, Griezmann's football smarts set him apart from players of similar ability.

His class and composure on the ball may prove the decisive factor in the final.

However, Perisic will have something to say about that.

Although his 2 goals, 7 shot assists and 1 goal assist aren't quite as good as Griezmann's efforts, Perisic almost single-handedly won the game for Croatia against England.

He has also hit the post twice in his last two games, and with a bit of luck, will be scoring again in the final.

 

World Cup Final Key Stats

  • The past two World Cup finals have finished 0-0 at the end of 90 minutes.
  • The last time 3 goals were scored in a World Cup final was in 1998, when France defeated Brazil 3-0. 

 

Betting Tip

France to win in 90 minutes @ $1.92.

Reasoning: Croatia's remarkable efforst of endurance will surely catch up with them.

Deschampes's France are just too focused on winning the match, no matter how it looks.

While it's likely to be a low-scoring game, the result could also blow out, so betting on the margin poses a challenge.

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