Author: Jared Deguara
Oct 12, 2017 03:29 AM
EPL betting - what the statistics say
The English Premier League (EPL) season heats up again this weekend with the headline fixture taking place at Wembley on Monday morning where an in form Spurs side host Jurgen Klopp’s Reds who are desperate for a win.
The EPL is a league that’s never short of a headline both on and off the field and it’s hard not to cast your eye over the abundance of markets on offer for every fixture. Many of us have experienced the excitement of waking up on a Monday morning to bank an 8-leg EPL multi, only to discover that the last leg went down overnight after the league leaders conceded an injury time equaliser to a side facing relegation. It’s enough to make you want to punch a hole through your TV screen and a feeling you wouldn’t wish upon anyone.
To help you avoid a catastrophe like this, our team took a deep dive into the stats from all 380 games of the 2016/17 season to reveal some notable trends for consideration before placing your EPL bets this weekend.
Head to Head
22% of games last season ended up in a draw whilst of those games which finished in a win, 63% of these were for the home team, emphasising the influence of the boisterous home crowds.
If you’re going to bet on an away team win, you’d be brave to back any team outside of the big 6 - Manchester City, Manchester United, Chelsea, Liverpool, Arsenal or Tottenham. These teams accounted for 72% of all away wins last season.
Total Goals Scored
If you’re considering taking a line bet, the stats indicate that you would be better off backing over 2.5 goals. Total goals scored in each game averaged 2.8 last season, with most goals (1.6 on average) scored in the second half.
Half Time/Full time Result
Nil all might be a boring score line but it can be a rewarding one to punt on. Nearly 30% of all games at half time were scoreless last season . This is worth noting when betting on the half time/full time market, particularly for those teams who tend to start games slow and finish in a flurry. Last season, Arsenal went into the sheds at half time deadlocked 17 times. Of those 17 times, they went on to win 11 of those occasions.
Ref Bias
There were a total of 8,634 fouls in the league last season- more diving than in the Olympics! 52% of these were called against away teams and subsequently more yellow cards were handed to players from away teams with 1.89 per game, as opposed to 1.74 per game to players from home teams.
Full Time Score
The common full-time score was 1-0 which occurred 38 times making up 10% of all scores for the season. The most drawn result was 1-1, making up 9% of all scores. The key take-away here is to consider a bet for both teams to score if you want to back the draw, as it may represent greater value.
Our suggested bet for the big clash between Spurs and Liverpool:
Over 2.5 goals scored for the game currently paying $1.62 with Ladbrokes.
Reasoning – Liverpool may have held the Red Devils to a clean sheet last week however their defence still looks flimsy and an in form Harry Kane will be up for this having scored four goals in his last five appearances against the Reds. This match-up has been full of goals in recent times, averaging three goals per game over the last ten fixtures. It makes a great case to take the 2.5+ goals here.
