The 2019 AFL campaign is finally here and our season opener sees Carlton take on premiership favourites Richmond at the MCG.
We reveal our AFL betting tips for the Melbourne derby, as well as the other two early games.
The Pies host the Cats on a cracker of a Friday night match, before Port Adelaide come up to Melbourne to take on the Demons on Saturday.
Carlton Blues vs Richmond Tigers
AFL Odds: Blues $5.20 (+36.5) / Tigers $1.14 (-36.5)
The 2019 AFL season kicks of at the 'G', with the traditional opening round fixture between the Blues and Tigers.
There's no getting away from the fact that this is a David and Goliath battle.
The AFL odds have the reigning wooden spooners starting as $5.20 outsiders.
But after an impressive pre-season, don't be surprised if Carlton give this a real shake. David did beat Goliath after all.
Why Carlton can win
Carlton have been going through a rebuilding phase for a few seasons now, forming a young and talented roster that will be world-beaters in a few years.
Some of these players are ready to hit their peak, most notably Brownlow medalist favourite Patrick Cripps.
Cripps was handed the co-captaincy in the off-season and at 24 years of age, he's ready to improve on last campaign's stellar effort.
The Blues added some experience to their roster in the trade period, who will only improve the younger players around them.
And don't forget that in this corresponding fixture last year, the Blues led early in the final quarter before going down by 26 points.
Why Richmond can win
The Premiers from 2017 and the Premiership favourites for the 2019 flag, it's no surprise the Tigers are so short in the betting.
They have only improved on their squad in the off-season, with the addition of one of the league's best full-forwards, Tom Lynch.
The prospect of coming up against Lynch and Jack Reiwoldt, as well as young stars Daniel Rioli and Jack Higgins, should strike fear into the hearts of Carlton's young defence.
If this new-look forward line can click from the off, then the Tigers have far too much experience and firepower not to get the win.
Key AFL Stats
Richmond have won 25 of their past 26 games in Melbourne: Tigers to win @ $1.14
Patrick Cripps has recorded 30+ disposals in each of Carlton's previous 4 night matches: Cripps to get 30+ touches @ $1.45
The Tigers have covered the line in 17 of their past 25 night games: Richmond to cover the -36.5 point line @ $1.90
AFL Betting Tip: Carlton to cover the +36.5 point line @ $1.90
Reasoning: The Tigers have won each of their last 4 opening round fixtures against the Blues by an average margin of 26 points.
With a significanlty improved squad this time around, Carlton should keep within 36 points.
Collingwood Magpies vs Geelong Cats
AFL Odds: Pies $1.56 (-8.5) / Cats $2.34 (+8.5)
Friday night footy returns with a cracker, as Collingwood host the Cats at the MCG.
Last year's runners-up will be hoping to go one-better this year and that all starts with securing the four points here.
Meanwhile, Geelong may have let their premiership chances get away from them with their core group of players one further step towards retirement.
Why Collingwood can win
The Pies have the league's best midfield. Full stop.
Brownlow medal runner-up Steele Sidebottom plays alongside the dynamic duo of Adam Treloar and Taylor Adams, as well as club captain Scott Pendlebury and new recruit Dayne Beams.
The dominance of these players in the centre of the park will mean that the Magpies will just need to take their chances in the forward line to win.
With the AFL's favourite American Mason Cox as well as Jordan De Goey up top, the Cats could be in for a long night.
Why Geelong can win
Geelong certainly have the quality to pull off an upset.
Patrick Dangerfield, Joel Selwood and Gary Ablett Jnr are up there as the best players of their generation.
But at 28, 30 and 34 years old respectively, there's a feeling that these players might be over the hill.
However, the likes of Tim Kelly and Mitch Duncan still have plenty in their legs and should keep the Cats in this for a long way.
Key AFL Stats
The Magpies have won each of their previous 6 night games in Victoria by a margin of 1-39 points: Pies to win by 1-39 points @ $2.25
The underdog has covered the line in 18 of Geelong's past 22 MCG matches: Cats to cover the +8.5 point line @ $1.90
Collingwood have won 15 of their last 17 games as favourite: Pies to win @ $1.56
AFL Betting Tip: Collingwood to cover the -8.5 point line @ $1.90
Reasoning: With too much star power at the right age, expect the Pies will to be too quick, fit and strong on the big MCG surface.
Melbourne Demons vs Port Adelaide Power
AFL Odds: Demons $1.25 (-23.5) / Power $3.70 (+23.5)
Another cracking Round 1 fixture sees Port make the trip to Melbourne to take on the Demons.
Melbourne have been building and building pver the past few seasons, with many thinking that this might be the year they finally break their premiership drought.
The Power will need to be on their game first-up, and with the capability of pulling off an upset, this will be closer than the bookie's AFL odds suggest.
Why Demons can win
Melbourne not only have their best squad of the past 10 years, but they are at the right age to win a flag.
The Dees' core of Oliver, Brayshaw, Viney and the McDonald brothers should be hitting the peak of their powers this campaign.
Their attack-at-all-costs style of football had neutrals in awe last season of what this Demons side is capable of.
With that little bit extra experience, the Dees are ready to get their season off to a dominant start.
Why Power can win
Port Adelaide have been one of the league's most inconsistent sides in the past few years, winning the games they should be losing, and losing the ones they should be winning.
They let go some of their most hit and miss players in the trade period, including Jasper Pittard and Chad Wingard.
Without these players, there's an argument that Port might be a more consitent side and ready to do some serious damage in September.
With plenty of hard nuts in their side, the Power might pull off a gritty win.
Key AFL Stats
Port have failed to cover the line in each of their last 7 Saturday matches: Melbourne to cover the -23.5 point line @ $1.90
Each of the previous 9 Saturday games at the MCG have been won by the home side: Demons to win @ $1.25
Angus Brayshaw has recorded 30+ touches in all of Melbourne's past 3 day matches as a favourite: Brayshaw to get 30+ disposals @ $2.60
AFL Betting Tip: Melbourne to win by a margin of 1-39 points @ $2.20
Reasoning: Melbourne should have too much quality here, but Port won't go down without a fight.
Mar 21, 2019 07:01 PM
AAP
Key AFL Stats
AFL Betting Tip: Carlton to cover the +36.5 point line @ $1.90
