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  • Thursday, 18 July 2019
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PorAdelaide Oliver Wines

AFL Betting Tips: Super Saturday Round 4 Season 2019


Port to overpower toothless Tigers

Saturday is jam-packed with AFL action. 

Can Brisbane make it four from four? Will the Eagles continue their derby dominance? And can the Kangas record their first win of 2019?

But most interestingly, will Richmond cope without their quartet of star players?

To get our take on these questions, read our previews and AFL betting tips below.

 

Essendon Bombers vs Brisbane Lions

AFL Odds: Bombers $1.85 (-1.5) / Lions $1.95 (+1.5)

After more than a decade languishing in the AFL wilderness, the Lions are back.

While the signs were there that Brisbane were on the mend, nobody could've predicted their three and zip start to the season.

Essendon face a tough task in stopping a Brisbane bunch who are only growing in confidence with each win. 

 

Why Bombers can win

The Dons registered their first win of 2019 last week, overcoming the Dees by three goals in a shootout.

While Essendon's forwards deserve plenty of credit, they played against a Melbourne defence that was an absolute shambles.

While scoring against the Lions will be much tougher, the Bombers still have the quality to get it done. 

And with just a fitness test standing between Cale Hooker and a return to the team, the Dons will have a great mixture of both height and speed in the forward line. 

 

Why Lions can win

Lachie Neale is already standing head and shoulders above everyone else as the recruit of the off-season.

The ex-Docker has been inspirational at his new club, racking up the most disposals league-wide and launching himself into Brownlow contention in the AFL odds.

His best mate Lincoln McCarthy has also impressed since arriving from Geelong, playing with a newfound confidence that has seen him pull off hangers like this.

 

And the pleasing fact for Lions fans is just how well their young forwards are playing. Eric Hipwood booted six last week, while "The Big O" Oscar McInerny will always cause havoc for opposition defenders. 

If they can sustain their form, Essendon better look out.

AFL Stats Key AFL Stat
  • The previous 4 fixtures between these sides have been won by the away team: Brisbane to win @ $1.95
AFL Betting Tip AFL Betting Tip: Brisbane to win @ $1.95

Reasoning: Going on form, you'd have to stick with the Lions, who would need to drop away to taste defeat here.

Based on their confidence levels, it's hard to see this happening.

 

Port Adelaide Power vs Richmond Tigers

AFL Odds: Power $1.29 (-26.5) / Tigers $3.45 (+26.5)

Are we witnessing the end of an era with the Tigers?

While it's perhaps a little too early to say that, they'll look like a shadow of themselves here, with all of their Big Four missing for the first time since 2010.

At the Adelaide Oval, Port are always tough to get past.

They couldn't have got Richmond at a better time, and have no excuses here.

 

Why Power can win

Port were flying with two wins from two until they ran into the red-hot Lions up in Brisbane last week.

Plenty of their players went missing, and will be looking to bounce back with a strong performance here.

The same can't be said about 19-year-old Connor Rozee, who booted 5 goals in just his third game of AFL footy.

Port actually won the contested possessions count against the Lions.

It was their disposal efficiency that let them down. Any improvement would see them get over the line here.

 

Why Tigers can win

If Richmond get the win, it's going to have to be off a ferocious and high-energy performance from their younger players.

That's because of their experienced core has been ripped out.

Not only did Trent Cotchin join Alex Rance and Jack Reiwoldt on the sideline after injuring his hamstring in last week, but Dustin Martin got caught striking GWS's Adam Kennedy, and will miss through suspension. 

However, if that the past two seasons have taught us anything about the Tigers, it's that their style of play is their biggest weapon.

That could get them the win here.

AFL Stats Key AFL Stat
  • Port Adelaide have won 3 of their past 4 against Richmond: Power to win @ $1.29
AFL Betting Tip AFL Betting Tip: Power to win by a margin of 1-39 points @ $2.10

Reasoning: Richmond will put up a fight, but are missing too many of their stars to come away with the win.

 

North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Adelaide Crows

AFL Odds: Kangaroos $2.40 (+8.5) / Crows 1.55 (-8.5)

The Kangas looked ready to break their 2019 duck in Round 3 when they hopped out to a 27-point lead in the second quarter.

However, a horror second half against the Hawks saw them surrender, ultimately going down by 16.

The pressure is on, with fans expecting a win.

It's not going to be easy against an Adelaide side who also haven't had the best start to the season, and will be fighting for every ball.

 

Why Kangaroos can win

They showed in the first half last week just what they are capable of. 

Superb, clean attacking football, with contested ball king Ben Cunnington winning the ball in the scrap and feeding it out to the quality ball-users in Shaun Higgins and Jack Zeibell.

It's been the Roos forward line that has been letting them down.

Ben Brown in particular has had a slow start to the season by his lofty standards, and was publicly panned by ex-Roos forward Wayne Carey during the week.

Don't be surprised if Brown comes out and lets his boot do the talking.

 

Why Crows can win

Adelaide have faced three tricky opponents to start their campaign, and will appreciate coming up against a side struggling for their best.

The Crows' Round 2 victory over the Swans at the SCG showed that they are more than capable of winning on the road.

And if they hadn't run into the Cats last week, the Crows would likely be heading into this clash off the back of two straight wins.

The Crouch brothers were immense in last week's loss to the Cats.

With an extra three day's rest than the Roos, look for Adelaide to leave no stone unturned in their quest for win two of 2019. 

AFL Stats Key AFL Stat
  • The Crows have won 3 of their past 4 AFL away games: Adelaide to win @ $1.55
AFL Betting Tip AFL Betting Tip: Adelaide to cover the -8.5 point line @ $1.90

Reasoning: With a star-studded line-up, the Crows should win comfortably against a stuttering Kangas side.

 

West Coast Eagles vs Fremantle Dockers

AFL Odds: Eagles $1.11 (-35.5) / Dockers $6 (+35.5)

The first Western Derby of the season is looking set to follow the script of the last few years.

Not only does West Coast's form suggest they'll win in a canter, but the margin of victory could become even larger depending on whether Freo star Nat Fyfe starts.

Fyfe suffered a sickening concussion in the Dockers' narrow Round 3 win over St Kilda. It's hard to see the medical staff allowing him to play here. 

 

Why Eagles can win

After the reigning premiers were slow out of the blocks in 2019, they have quickly responded with two dominant wins against high quality opposition.

On top of their form, star midfielder Andrew Gaff returned against the Pies after a lengthy suspension, and was one of the best on ground.

Gaff clearly was looking to make up for lost time. With 35 touches, he couldn't have asked for a better game to re-ignite his AFL career.

With Gaff's quality back into a midfield that was doing well without him, West Coast have far too many weapons for Freo to cope with.

 

Why Dockers can win

The Dockers can just about wave their chances on winning this match goodbye if Fyfe doesn't start.

But for his long-term health, you'd think it'd be in the club's best interests to leave him out here.

However, no matter whether Fyfe starts or not, you still couldn't tip the Dockers here.

Their round 1 drubbing of the Kangaroos now looks to be a flash in the pan based on how the Kangas have played since.

Every Freo player would need to perform near their peak for the Dockers to get the win.

AFL Stats Key AFL Stat
  • The Eagles have won the last 7 Western Derbies: West Coast to win @ $1.11
AFL Betting Tip AFL Betting Tip: West Coast to cover the -35.5 point line @ $1.90

Reasoning: Based on the form, you can't tip anything else.

Check out the all the best betting promotions on offer for this weekend's games.

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