Analyst: Alex Christodoulou
Apr 04, 2019 02:43 PM
Dees or Dons to turn things around?
Just two rounds in and the 2019 AFL season is already creating plenty of story lines.
One of those involves the ladder-leading Cats, who'll look to extend their un-beaten run when they take on the Crows.
Then, four teams all looking for their first win of the campaign do battle, when the Demons host the Bombers, and the Blues welcome the Swans.
Want a second opinion before betting on the AFL? Check out our AFL betting tips below.
Adelaide Crows vs Geelong Cats
AFL Odds: Crows $1.90 (+0.5) / Cats $1.90 (-0.5)
Two teams coming off strong wins in Round 2 do battle to kick-start Round 3.
The Crows righted the wrongs of their opening round defeat at the Adelaide Oval last week, coming out and outplaying the Swans on their home turf.
They'll need to reproduce that effort to handle the Cats, who are sitting pretty at the top of the ladder.
Why Crows can win
The Crows will be desperate to record their first win at the Adelaide Oval, after being humbled by the Hawks there in Round 1.
The Adelaide Oval is typically one of the hardest away trips in the league, and a game that the Crows get up for.
Against Sydney, the Crows midfield put on a tackling masterclass. This is never easy to do against the Swans and shows just how much they wanted to redeem themselves after the opening round loss.
If they can play with the same intensity here, then Adelaide have the personnel to get them over the line.
Why Cats can win
Geelong have won two straight to start the season, with the form lines pointing to a third win here.
They were simply breathtaking against the Demons last week, thrashing them by a huge margin of 80 points.
This was off the back of a 7-point win away to Collingwood, who subsequently came out and whacked the then premiership favourites in the AFL odds, Richmond.
With Patrick Dangerfield coming off a great performance, look to him to do big things against his former side.
Key AFL Stat
- The home team has won 10 of the past 11 meetings between these sides: Adelaide to win @ $1.90
AFL Betting Tip:
Adelaide to win @ $1.90
Reasoning: The Cats always drop a gear away from Kardinia Park, and are due for a poor performance.
Adelaide at home will be very hard to beat.
Melbourne Demons vs Essendon Bombers
AFL Odds: Demons $1.36 (-16.5) / Bombers $2.96 (+16.5)
The two most disappointing teams of 2019 thus far lock horns in match where you wouldn't want to be on the losing side.
There were massive expectations on these clubs going into the new season, only for both of them to come out and lose their opening two games.
They'll need to find something to lift themselves off the bottom of the ladder.
Why Demons can win
Despite being anchored to the bottom rung of the ladder, the Demons are starting as heavy favourites in the AFL odds. Looking at their list, it's not hard to see why.
Melbourne have a premiership-quality team, who surely hit rock bottom last week.
A drastic improvement is on the cards, and this needs to be led by Melbourne's forwards and defenders.
That's because their star midfield quartet of Gawn, Oliver, Brayshaw and Viney actually acquitted themselves quite well against the Cats.
If these four can get some help from the players around them, then the Dees will prove too much for a wayward Essendon side.
Why Bombers can win
Speaking of the Dons, they backed up their terrible opening round performance with one just as bad in Round 2, going down to wooden spoon contenders St Kilda.
The Bombers have been struggling for points, and looking like they sorely need inspirational forward Joe Daniher back in their ranks.
Daniher is injured alongside fellow tall forward Cale Hooker.
While these two are expected to return in the coming weeks, Essendon are set to miss their height here once again.
Unless Melbourne's defenders have another shocker, then nothing suggests that Essendon will turn things around here.
Key AFL Stat
- The underdog has won 6 of the last 7 games between these sides at the MCG: Essendon to win @ $2.80
AFL Betting Tip:
Melbourne to cover the -16.5 point line @ $1.90
Reasoning: Even with the continued absence of a handful of their personnel, the Dees have too much quality on the park.
Carlton Blues vs Sydney Swans
AFL Odds: Blues $2.60 (+12.5) / Swans $1.46 (-12.5)
Two more teams searching for their first win of the campaign come face to face here, when the Swans fly down to Melbourne to take on the Blues.
While Sydney tasted defeat to the Crows last time out, they will feel hard done by after some horror officiating by the umpires.
They'll look to use that sense of injustice to fuel a big performance here, against a plucky Carlton side.
Why Blues can win
Carlton have really impressed in their opening two matches, pushing both Richmond and Port Adelaide right into the final quarter.
Patrick Cripps is quickly establishing himself as one of the league's best midfielders, while Calton's young brigade look to be getting better with each game.
With the experience of Marc Murphy, Kade Simpson and Dale Thomas, there is a good mix of age and youth in the Carlton side.
The forwards in particular will need to step up though, after Charlie Curnow will miss with a knee injury.
Why Swans can win
Sydney are another side with a good mix of age and experience.
You not only have the big names like Josh Kennedy and Lance Franklin, but young up-and-comers like Ben Ronke and Callum Mills.
And the good news for Swans fans is that these four haven't had the best start to the year, with plenty of room for improvement.
With Buddy sure to appreciate playing against a more inexperienced defence than what he's been up against to date, look for a game-winning performance here.
Key AFL Stat
- Sydney have 6 of their previous 9 games in Victoria: Swans to win @ $1.46
AFL Betting Tip:
Sydney to win by a margin of 1-39 points @ $2.10
Reasoning: Carlton have shown that they are well and truly up for the fight in 2019. But against the quality of the Swans, they'll fall just short here.