Author: Alex Christodoulou
May 03, 2019 07:01 PM
Can Brisbane snap Sydney hoodoo?
The Lions will look to overturn an 11-game losing streak against the Swans in Saturday's twilight fixture.
Then the Dogs will be determined to snap a losing streak of their own when they face the Tigers.
Saturday footy concludes out West, where the Eagles and Suns are both playing for win number four of 2019.
Find out which we're leaning with our
AFL betting tips.
Brisbane Lions vs Sydney Swans
AFL Odds: Lions $1.36 (-18.5) / Swans $3 (+18.5)
The Saturday twilight match sees the Swans fly up to
the Gabba to face the in-form Lions.
Brisbane thumped the Suns in last week's Q-Derby, snapping a two-game slump.
A win here would cement their spot in the top eight, and keep the Swans down in the cellar.
Speaking of the Bloods, they'll have to do it without Buddy, who's set to miss a second-straight week with a hamstring strain.
Why Lions can win
Brisbane burst out of the barriers with three straight wins in 2019, before succumbing to two heavy defeats.
They put those losses behind them last time, coming out and crushing Gold Coast by 49 points.
Young gun Cameron Rayner continues to find the goals, booting three in this win.
Rayner is one of Brisbane's stars in the making, and he's sure to cause Sydney's backline plenty of headaches.
At the Gabba, in front of a home crowd desperate to see the Lions overturn a poor record in this fixture, look for a big performance.
Why Swans can win
After a decade of finals footy, it looks as if the Swans are finally going to miss out.
Buddy or not, they've been poor in 2019, with so many of their players not performing at the standard they are capable of.
But the signs aren't all bad. They were competitive for the majority of last week's Sydney derby, with Josh Kennedy and Luke Parker in particular having solid games.
However, with so many of Sydney's younger players not performing, don't be surprised if John Longmire swings the axe.
He'll need to do something to inspire his players here.
Key AFL Stat
The Swans have won their last 11 AFL games against Brisbane:
Sydney to win @ $3
AFL Betting Tip:
Sydney to cover the +18.5 point line @ $1.90
Reasoning: They've got a good thing going against the Lions.
Their recent dominance in this fixture should provide enough motivation to keep them in it for a long way.
Western Bulldogs vs Richmond Tigers
AFL Odds: Bulldogs $3.45 (+22.5) / Tigers $1.28 (-22.5)
The Western Bulldogs are another side that need to get a wriggle on or risk leaving themselves too much to do to make the eight.
After a promising start to the season, the Dogs have now lost four on the trot, against opposition that isn't exactly crash-hot.
Maybe a game against a team of the Tigers' quality will bring the best out of them.
Richmond thumped the Dees last week and are looking like they're back to their menacing best.
Why Bulldogs can win
After two terrific wins to start the season, it's all gone sour for the Dogs.
They'd need to lift considerably to get the job done here.
Luckily for them, they have the players in their squad to do it.
Jason Johannnisen has been solid since his injury return without setting the world alight.
While Marcus Bontempelli's form has dropped after a superb start to the season.
These two only managed 45 touches between them last week, and will need to up their games considerably for the Dogs to stand a chance here.
Why Tigers can win
There's more injury concerns for the Tigers, with Jack Reiwoldt set for a two-month stint on the sidelines with a PCL tear.
On top of this, there's an injury cloud hanging over key defender David Astbury, who damaged his ankle against the Demons.
However, even without this duo (and the likes of Cotchin and Rance), Richmond still have more than enough quality.
They have a stellar recent record in Melbourne, and unless they become complacent, will be winning this one comfortably.
Key AFL Stat
The previous 3 games between these sides have been decided by a margin of 15 points or less:
Either team to win by 1-15 points @ $2.90
AFL Betting Tip:
Richmond to cover the -22.5 point line @ $1.90
Reasoning: The Bulldogs haven't shown nearly enough of late.
West Coast Eagles vs Gold Coast Suns
AFL Odds: Eagles $1.06 (-47.5) / Suns $8 (+47.5)
West Coast are starting to become a bit of an enigma.
After they were favourites to claim back-to-back flags only a fortnight ago, they've since suffered two defeats by a combined 100 points.
However, these were against tough opponents, and they'll surely relish a game against a team of Gold Coast's lesser quality.
The Suns are coming off a towelling of their own, and will need to lift significantly to get the competition points here.
Why Eagles can win
West Coast only scored a measly 46 points last week, where they were suffocated by the narrow dimensions of Geelong's home ground.
Optus Stadium's wide expanses, the Eagles will be able to spread the ball with their trademark precision kicking and marking, which will lead to more points.
However, they'll first need to win the contested footy in the middle.
This is where the Suns have been surprising teams in 2019, and why the home side will need to be on their toes.
Why Suns can win
Even though Gold Coast have won just as many games as the Eagles this season, they come in as deserved heavy underdogs in the
In fact, a win by the Suns here would be the biggest upset of the year thus far.
And if the Eagles get there way, the scoreline could become very ugly.
But as mentioned above, Gold Coast's mids have done well in 2019, where their toughness has really set the tone for the whole team.
A standout performance in the midfield could keep this game competitive.
Key AFL Stat
The away team hasn't won any of the past 5 match-ups between these sides:
West Coast to win @ $1.06
AFL Betting Tip:
West Coast to cover the -47.5 line @ $1.90
Reasoning: It's a big line, but the Suns lost by more on their home deck to Brisbane last week.
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