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Essendon Joe Daniher 2018

AFL Betting Preview Round 11: Saturday evening games


Rivals clash in Dreamtime at the G

The latest chapter in the annual 'Dreamtime at the G' rivalry is set to be one of the best yet. Essendon's form over the last fortnight suggests they are more than capable of ending Richmond's 14-game MCG winning streak.

Before that spectacle, the Gary Ablett storyline will be central when his Cats travel to Gold Coast to take on his former Suns teammates.

The late game sees St Kilda face a near impossible task as they try to knock off the top-of-the-table Eagles in Perth.  

 

Gold Coast v Geelong

(Gold Coast $3.55, Geelong $1.30)

After playing his first game back at Kardinia Park in a Geelong guernsey last week, Gary Ablett will play his first game back at Metricon Stadium as a Cat in this clash. This will actually be Gold Coast's first proper home game this year, as Metricon Stadium has been out of action with Commonwealth Games events. 

Playing for the first time at home, and with the added motivation of giving it to their old captain, the Suns might just pull an upset out of the hat. Coming off an extra week's rest after playing in China can't hurt, with first year coach Stuart Dew having extra time to concoct a game plan to give Chris Scott and his Cats a genuine scare.

While Geelong were far from convincing in their 28-point win over Carlton last week, you'd expect their midfield quality to get the job done again. Whether that is actually the case remains to be seen.

Key Ins: Tom Lynch (Gold Coast), Jack Martin (Gold Coast), Sam Day (Gold Coast).

Key Outs: Esava Ratugolea (Geelong).

Key AFL Stats

  • Gold Coast have covered the line in 6 of their last 7 day matches at Metricon Stadium following a loss in the previous round.
  • Geelong have failed to cover the line in 9 of their last 10 matches as a favourite following a win in the previous round.
  • The Cats have won 6 of their last 8 meetings with the Suns.

AFL Betting Tip: Gold Coast to win Head-to-Head @ $3.55 

 

 

Essendon v Richmond

(Essendon $3.55, Richmond $1.30)

This traditional 'Dreamtime at the G' spectacle is the definite highlight of the Sir Doug Nicholls Round, with the imposing MCG form of reigning premiers Richmond coming up against a rejuvenated Essendon. 

The Bombers look to have finally clicked, and their last round victory over GWS in Sydney shouldn't be underestimated. While this will be their toughest test all season, Essendon's midfield of Zaharakis, Heppell and Merrett are all playing well and are capable of outmuscling Dustin Martin in the middle of the park.

If the Tigers aren't careful, they could be stunned in this clash. However, their recent experience of playing in front of ninety plus thousand MCG crowds will be beneficial for what's expected to be another vocal blockbuster at the home of footy. 

Key Ins: Dylan Grimes (Richmond, likely), Michael Hurley (Essendon, likely)

Key Outs: Bachar Houli (Richmond), Jack Riewoldt (Richmond, likely)

Key AFL Stats

  • Richmond have won 14 consecutive matches at the MCG.
  • The Bombers have covered the line in 6 of their last 8 night matches.
  • The Tigers have won their last 6 clashes with the Bombers.

AFL Betting Tip: Essendon to cover the +20.5 point line @ $1.92

 

 

West Coast v St Kilda

(West Coast $1.04, St Kilda $11.50)

Saturday's last game sees a team with only one loss this season come up against a club that have only won once. 

Ladder-leading West Coast have been imperious since their Round 1 loss to the Swans, and could probably deal with the hapless Saints with one hand tied behind their back. If the Eagles are switched on mentally, they could be winning by a handsome margin, which would benefit their percentage and go a long way towards securing the minor premiership down the track. 

St Kilda have been an improved outfit in their past two games, but still look fairly unthreatening in front of goal. Another loss looms for the downbeat Saints, who can already start planning for next season. 

Key Ins: Luke Shuey (West Coast, likely)

Key Outs: Jake Carlisle (St Kilda)

Key AFL Stats

  • St Kilda have failed to cover the line in 6 consecutive night matches.
  • The Eagles have won their last 3 home games, each by a margin of 40+ points.
  • The Saints have lost 9 consecutive away matches.

AFL Betting Tip: West Coast to cover the -53.5 point line @ $1.92  

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