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Swans Richmond

AFL Betting Preview Round 15: The early games

Tagged: AFL

Grand Final Preview

With a full nine games scheduled for Round 15, there is plenty for the punter to get his teeth stuck into this weekend. 

The definite highlight of the round comes early on, with Thursday night's first versus second blockbuster set to be one of the games of the year.

 

Richmond v Sydney 

AFL Odds: Richmond $1.54 (-14.5) / Sydney $2.55 (+14.5)

What a game to begin Round 15, with many in the AFL media touting this Richmond versus Sydney clash as a possible Grand Final preview.

Both the Tigers and Swans are occupying the top two spots on the ladder, with the result here sure to have huge implications in the minor premiership race.

This game will be played at Etihad Stadium in Melbourne, which ironically suits the team from Sydney.

The Swans have an unblemished away record in 2018, and they will be breathing a sigh of relief that the game isn't being played at the MCG, where Richmond have been invincible of late.

The game may very well come down to how well Sydney's superb defence copes with Richmond's forward line pressure and repeated inside 50s.

The return of classy defender Jarrad McVeigh from injury is therefore a huge boost for the Swans.

AFL Player In David Astbury (Richmond), Dion Prestia (Richmond), Jarrad McVeigh (Sydney)

 

AFL Player Out Tom Papley (Sydney)

 

 AFL Weather All clear, so the players alone will decide the outcome of this one. 

 

AFL Stats in focus

AFL Stats

These numbers highlight the opposing strengths of both sides. Richmond are great at getting the ball inside their attacking 50, while Sydney excel at absorbing pressure and getting it out of their defensive 50. 

With champion players in both sides, as well as a generous smattering of up and coming talent, both teams are looking in great shape for not only this season, but years to come.

Key AFL Stat

  • The Swans have won all 6 of their away games in 2018

 

AFL Betting Tips  AFL Betting Tip: Sydney to win head-to-head @ $2.55

 

 

Western Bulldogs v Geelong 

AFL Odds: Western Bulldogs $4.75 (+31.5) / Geelong $1.20 (-31.5)

Friday night footy sees the Cats make the trip up to Melbourne for what is a must-win match for their top four aspirations. They take on the Bulldogs, who are in the midst of a five-game losing streak.

The Dogs were so close to returning to the winner's circle last week. A last minute goal to North Melbourne's Jack Zeibell was the nail in the Bulldogs' coffin, consigning them to a 2-point loss and spelling the end of their finals chances.

That agonising defeat will have stayed planted on the Bulldogs' minds all week, and if they can't put those negative thoughts behind them, they could be on the end of a spanking here.

AFL Player In Harry Taylor (Geelong, likely), Cam Guthrie (Geelong, likely)

 

AFL Player Out None

 

 AFL Weather A chance of rain, but if so the roof will be closed at Etihad. This could help the Cats pile on even more points.

 

AFL Stats in focus

AFL Stats

Interestingly, Geelong's champagne midfield of Selwood, Dangerfield and Ablett have been far from fluent this year. More than that, they have been ordinary, evidenced by the stats.

 

With all their stars, Geelong are ranking last in centre clearances, yet they find themselves inside the top eight. Therefore, even a slight improvement in the centre clearances will mean Geelong's expected margin of victory will only increase.

Key AFL Stat 

  • Geelong have won their last 11 matches against the Bulldogs.

 

AFL Betting Tips AFL Betting Tip: Geelong to cover the -31.5 point line @ $1.92

 

Carlton ($6.50) v Port Adelaide ($1.12)

AFL Odds: Carlton $6.50 (+38.5) / Port Adelaide $1.12 (-38.5)

Hold tight Carlton fans, because this could be another blowout.

While the Blues weren't so bad against Collingwood in last week's rivalry match, they often struggle to put two good performances back-to-back.

Compound this with yet more injury troubles and the Blues will find it difficult to keep this respectable against the red-hot Power. 

Patrick Cripps continues to star in a struggling side and would be in Brownlow consideration had the Blues won more games. His 3 goals and 20 contested possessions last week helped to keep it close against the Pies. 

However, he just lacks support in the midfield, and will be fighting a lone battle against Port Adelaide's midfield here. 

AFL Player In None

 

AFL Player Out Lachie Plowman (Carlton), Matthew Kruezer (Carlton, likely)

 

 AFL Weather A little bit of rain about, but nowhere near enough to help Carlton on the scoreboard. 

 

AFL Stats in focus

AFL Stats

Port's power in the midfield has been a huge reason for them winning five out of their last six, as well as three on-the-trot. Coach Ken Hinkley will be happy with the numbers his mids are producing, putting them in the top four for all the key statistical yardsticks.  

Unless Cripps finds some support in an injury stricken team, the Blues will be overrun in the midfield and then on the scoreboard.

Key AFL Stat 

  • When these two teams last played, Port Adelaide triumphed by 90 points. 

 

AFL Betting TipsAFL Betting Tip: Port Adelaide to cover the -38.5 point line @ $1.92

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