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Roosters Cooper Cronk

NRL Betting Preview Round 16: Thursday & Friday night footy

Tagged: NRL

Cooper catching up with old mates

Dragons  v Eels  

NRL Odds: Dragons $1.30 (-9.5) / Eels $3.50 (+9.5)

Ladder leaders, St George Illawarra head to WIN Stadium to face off against the underperforming Parramatta Eels, who are sitting stone motherless last. 

The vast majority of Dragons' rep players are coming off wins last week, and fans will be hoping that momentum will continue into this round. 

The exception to this is half-back Ben Hunt, who is returning to club footy off a poor showing in Origin two. The ability of Hunt to handle the disappointment of an Origin series loss will go a long way to determining the Dragons' 2018 premiership aspirations.

Parramatta has plenty to play for and will be looking to avoid the wooden spoon come season end.

The return of Mitchell Moses is a key inclusion for the blue and gold, however they'll need to be on their game if they hope to be competitive with the premiership front runners. 

The Eels have won their last six encounters with the Dragons, but if they are to make it seven in a row they'll need to improve on their lacklustre point scoring record this season. 

Scoring an average of 14.5 points per game, Parra will need plenty of good fortune if they are to come out on top. 

NRL Player In  Mitchell Moses (Eels), Will Smith (Eels)

 

NRL Player Out Tyson Frizell (Dragons), Josh Hoffman (Eels) Manu Ma'u (Eels)

 

NRL Weather Showers are predicted for Thursday night in Wollongong, which will ensure a greasy playing surface. Expect dummy half running metres to be at a premium as the outside backs will look to take pressure off their respective forward packs coming out of their half.   

 

Key match-ups  

Outside Backs  

 A wet and miserable night in Wollongong could very quickly turn this game into a slug-fest. If so, the outside backs will be key to helping out their respective forward packs. 

The Eels backline has shown vulnerability in their willingness to work hard with and without the ball this year.

Signs are good for the Dragons fans. Their outside backs have the wood on the Eels in average run meters, and you wouldn't expect their appetite for work coming out of their end to disappear on Thursday night.

NRL Stats

 

Euan Aitken v Jarryd Hayne (Dragons right attack v Eels Left defence)

There is a big opportunity for points if the Dragons can get Euan Aitken one-on-one with his opposite Jarryd Hayne. 

Aitken will be licking his lips at the prospect of facing up against his more senior opponent, given Hayne has shown he is vulnerable in defence this season.

Hayne has missed nine tackles and committed five try-causes in six games this year as well as conceding eight line breaks, while Aitken has scored eight tries on the right edge.

Expect Aitken to bag at least one try.

 

Key NRL stats

  • Parramatta have won their last 6 games against the Dragons
  • Average points scored per game - Dragons 25.1, Eels 14.5
  • Average points conceded per game - Dragons 15.4, Eels 23.6

Key NRL Betting Stats 

  • The Dragons have won 19 of 21 games as favourites at home 
  • In the Dragons' last 5 games, the total match points scored has been UNDER th line.
  • The Eels have covered the line in their last 6 encounters with the Dragons 

 

NRL Betting TipNRL Betting Tip: Back the Dragons to cover the line of -9.5 @ $1.90

Reasoning: St George has lost touch with the devastating form that saw them reach premiership favourite status. That aside, you'd expect them to be too strong for the Eels who will need plenty to go their way in this game to even cover the line. 

 

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WarriorsSharks

NRL Odds: Warriors $2.05 (+1.5) / Sharks $1.80 (-1.5)

The surprise package of the season has been the New Zealand Warriors. Suggested by most to miss the top eight, they have shown plenty of grit and determination, winning plenty of fans in the process. 

The Kiwi outfit find themselves in the top four and will view this clash as a must win. In what is a congested NRL ladder, a loss for the Warriors will see them fall into fifth position, with the daunting task of facing the Panthers in Penrith the following week.    

Cronulla is quickly losing touch with the top four. Off the back of two losses in three games, they have now slipped to seventh on the ladder.

The mid-season signing of Aaron Woods adds plenty of interest to this clash, with the veteran prop out to prove that he still has plenty to offer his new team. 

NRL Player In David Fusitua (Warriors), Aaron Woods (Sharks)

 

NRL Player Out Adam Blair (Warriors) Isaac Luke (Warriors), Luke Lewis (Sharks), Wade Graham (Sharks)

 

NRL Weather Fine and 13 degrees is the forecast, which will ensure both sides can show off their attacking prowess.  

 

Key NRL stats

  • Average points scored per game- Warriors 20.6; Sharks 19.6
  • Average points conceded per game- Warriors 18.9; Sharks 17.8
  • The Warriors are only averaging 9.4 errors per game in contrast to the Sharks with 11.3

Key Betting Stats 

  • The Warriors' last 5 of 7 games have resulted in UNDER total points scored at Mt Smart Stadium 
  • New Zealand has a strong record as underdogs this season, winning 71.4% of games when starting as the outsider

 

NRL Betting Tip NRL Betting Tip: No Bet

Reasoning: The statistics point to a very even contest so there are a too many variables to be betting in this fixture. The home ground advantage is significant; however, with Isaac Luke unlikely to play, the Warriors will be vulnerable through the middle of the park.

 

Roosters v Storm

NRL Odds: Roosters $2.20 (+2.5) / Storm $1.70 (-2.5)

Adelaide Oval plays host to the game of the round.

Both the Roosters and Storm are sitting one win outside of the top four, so you can expect sparks to fly as these two NRL heavy-weights go head-to-head. 

Both teams have won four of their last five games, and both are starting to hit their straps. 

Given the unfamiliar round field that is Adelaide Oval, expect both teams to arrive with the same game plan - to kick early and back their defence.

In an ominous sign for punters, the previous two games between these clubs have been decided by less than three points.

The big difference for this clash is that Cooper Cronk is now playing for the chooks. Facing off against his former teammates, Cronk will be eager for the win over Melbourne.  

NRL Player In Siosiau Taukeiaho (Roosters), Lindsay Collins (Roosters), Matthew Ikuvalu (Roosters), Billy Slater (Storm)

 

NRL Player OutBoyd Cordner (Roosters), Jared Warea-Hargreaves (Roosters), Joseph Manu (Roosters), Sam Kasiano (Storm)

 

NRL Weather Rain is forecast for early in the day, which is likely to produce a slippery surface. 

 

Key match-ups

The Spine 

Both spines are evenly matched. James Tedesco has been dominant from full-back this season and has a clear edge on Billy Slater in average run metres and line breaks.

Luke Keary and Cameron Munster are models of consistency. Both are game breakers for their respective clubs.

Cooper Cronk has the upper hand on Riley Jacks, but conversely Cameron Smith well and truly dominates the stats over his rival hooker, Jake Friend. 

NRL Stats

 

Key NRL stats

  • Average points scored per game - Roosters 20.9; Storm 23.2
  • Average points conceded per game - Roosters 14.5; Storm 15.4
  • Average line breaks conceded- Roosters 3.1, Storm 3.4

Key Betting Stats 

  • The Storm has won only one game by a margin of 1-12 this season, from 14 matches
  • Latrell Mitchell has scored the first try in 4 games this season 
  • The Roosters have covered the line in their last 6 Friday night games  

 

NRL Betting Tip NRL Betting Tip: Roosters to win @ $2.20 

Reasoning: The Roosters have hit top gear and you'd expect James Tedesco and Latrell Mitchell to lift to another level off the back of their Origin win. The loss of Boyd Cordner is a blow, however it will create more space and greater opportunity for young-gun Mitchell to wreak havoc down the left side. 

The Rooster’s Cooper Cronk is the defining factor here. He is more than aware of what the Strom can produce, and you'd expect the Roosters to be well in tune with what is coming their way.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           = High Confidence

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