NRL Odds: Melbourne Storm $1.52 (-4.5) / St George Illawara Dragons $2.55 (+4.5)
Sitting on top of the NRL ladder, the Dragons have been less than impressive in recent weeks. They will be doing well to take down an in form Storm outfit who are hitting top gear and reaping the rewards of Cameron Smith's retirement from representative footy.
Both teams are without a host of Origin stars, however the Storm look best equipped to handle the challenge with only one starting forward, Felise Kaufusi, playing Origin, compared to the Dragons who have three on duty.
To put the loss of these three players into perspective, Jack De Belin, Tariq Sims and Paul Vaughn average 122.5 metres between them, with the next best Dragons forward in James Graham at 101.4 m.
Melbourne on the other hand seem to be better positioned with their replacements. Billy Slater's replacement Jarome Hughes has averaged 110m in attack from his four NRL games this season. Slater has averaged 96m.
Young Tonumaipea (Storm), Cheyse Blair (Storm), Justin Olam (Storm), Ryley Jacks (Storm), Brodie Croft (Storm), Darren Nicholls (Dragons), Leeson Ah Mau (Dragons), Hame Sele (Dragons), Reece Robson (Dragons)
Billy Slater (Storm), Josh Addo-Carr (Storm), Cameron Munster (Storm), Felise Kaufusi (Storm), Tim Glasby (Storm), Will Chambers (Storm), Jack De Belin (Dragons), Ben Hunt (Dragons), Tariq Sims (Dragons), Paul Vaughn (Dragons)
Partly Cloudy and 15 degrees forecast for Melbourne. With rain about early in the day, expect a greasy playing surface. This game will be played through the middle third. There is a big watch on both forward packs to see who can lay the best platform for their halves to put on the points.
NRL Stats in focus - the last six
Melbourne Storm: "hitting top gear"
Won 5 of their past 6 games
Their only loss came without skipper Cameron Smith
2 of their 5 wins have come against top eight teams (Roosters & Storm)
St George Illawarra: "the downward spiral"
Won 4 of their past 6
Those four wins have been against sides outside the top eight (Eels, Manly, Bulldogs and Raiders)
Both losses have come at the hands of top eight teams (Penrith and Souths), scoring an average of only 6 points in both games
Key NRL stats
Points scored per game: Storm 22.3; Dragons 24.7
Points conceded per game: Storm 14.9; Dragons 15.6
The Dragons have never won at AAMI Park
Key NRL Betting Stats
Of the Storm's 10 wins this seaon, 8 have been by a margin of 13+ Storm 13+ @ $3.10
Riley Jacks (2) leads the Storm in first try scorers this season Riley Jacks first try @ $20
Games at AAMI Park in 2018, average 42 total match points Total match points line 35.5 points
NRL Betting Tip: Storm to cover the -4.5 line @ $1.90
Reasoning: The Storm have only conceded an average of 13 points in their last six games.
The Dragons only managed three tries, all off kicks, against the last place Eels and will now be without their three best forwards and half-back.
It's hard to see the Dragons putting up a fight in this game. With Cameron Smith calling the shots, the Storm should win convincingly.
The Panthers are in the midst of a mid-season slump and now face an uphill battle against the Warriors.
Averaging only 13 points in their last three games, the Panthers will be without stars James Maloney, Nathan Cleary and leading try-scorer Tyrone Peachey, who will all line-up for the Blues in Origin three.
In comparison, the Warriors have averaged 24 points in their last three games and are close to unbeatable at full strength.
The spine of Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, Blake Green, Shaun Johnson and Isaac Luke have combined with six wins from eight games this season.
This game shapes as a must-win for the Warriors. A victory will see them back in the top four, however a loss will see them slip to seventh on the ladder.
Tyrone May (Panthers), Jarome Luai (Panthers), Waqa Blake (Panthers), Corey Haraweira-Naera (Panthers), David Fusitua (Warriors), Ken Maumalo (Warriors), Adam Blair (Warriors), Ligi Sao (Warriors)
James Maloney (Panthers), Nathan Cleary (Panthers), Tyrone Peachey (Panthers), Kaide Ellis (Panthers), Karl Lawton (Warriors), Bunty Afoa (Warriors), Anthony Gelling (Warriors), Tohu Harris (Warriors)
Fine and 12 degrees forecast for Penrith. Expect to see a fast-paced game with some expansive footy to be played.
Key NRL stats
Points scored per game- Panthers 21.1; Warriors 20.3
Points conceded per game- Panthers 16.0; Warriors18.8
The Warriors have won their last five matches coming off a loss
Key NRL Betting Stats
The Warriors have covered the line in 66.7% of games - Game line Warriors -5.5
David Fusitu'a (3) leads the Warriors in first try scorers this season - David Fusitu'a first try @$9
Games at Panthers Stadium in 2018, average 32.7 points - Match line 39.5 points
NRL Betting Tip: Warriors to cover the line of -5.5 @$1.90
Reasoning:The Warriors have too much firepower for a Panthers side torn apart by injury and representative duties. Expect the Warriors 'spine' to pour on the points and the Panthers to have no answers.
Jul 05, 2018 07:01 PM
AAP
Young Tonumaipea (Storm), Cheyse Blair (Storm), Justin Olam (Storm), Ryley Jacks (Storm), Brodie Croft (Storm), Darren Nicholls (Dragons), Leeson Ah Mau (Dragons), Hame Sele (Dragons), Reece Robson (Dragons) 
Billy Slater (Storm), Josh Addo-Carr (Storm), Cameron Munster (Storm), Felise Kaufusi (Storm), Tim Glasby (Storm), Will Chambers (Storm), Jack De Belin (Dragons), Ben Hunt (Dragons), Tariq Sims (Dragons), Paul Vaughn (Dragons) 
Partly Cloudy and 15 degrees forecast for Melbourne. With rain about early in the day, expect a greasy playing surface. This game will be played through the middle third. There is a big watch on both forward packs to see who can lay the best platform for their halves to put on the points. 
Key NRL stats
Key NRL Betting Stats 
NRL Betting Tip: Storm to cover the -4.5 line @ $1.90 
