With three rounds left to play, who looks the best value?
With only three rounds to go before the finals seedings are set in stone, the AFL season has well and truly reached its pointy end.
Needless to say, every game featuring a Top 8 contender becomes crucial in the last three rounds.
AFL Odds - Futures Markets
Team
Premiership
Top 8
Richmond
$2.50
-
West Coast
$8
-
GWS
$8
$1.05
Melbourne
$8
$1.07
Collingwood
$11
$1.06
Geelong
$13
$1.11
Port Adelaide
$21
$1.33
Hawthorn
$21
$1.13
Sydney
$23
$1.95
North Melbourne
$51
$2.25
AFL Premiership Betting
Richmond
AFL Odds to win Premiership: $2.50
The Tigers have remained rock solid as Premiership favourites, at just $2.50 to win the flag.
While their MCG dominance is part of this, punters were given a glimpse that the Tigers aren't invincible on their home ground.
In Round 20, Richmond scraped over the line by only 3 points against an impressive Geelong outfit.
Gary Ablett even had a shot at goal in the latter stages that would have taken the Cats to the front.
This demonstrated that despite now winning 19 in a row at the MCG, a Tigers' defeat at the ground could be just around the corner.
While they are still deserved favourites, exercise caution because it could all come crashing down for the Tigers.
West Coast
AFL Odds to win Premiership: $8
After a disappointing loss in Round 19 against the Kangaroos, the Eagles bounced back to their best in the Derby, putting on a clinic without the services of Josh Kennedy.
They will soon have to cope without Andrew Gaff, after the midfielder's vicious punch will surely see him suspended for the rest of the season.
The trouble with West Coast is that they are a completely different team depending on whether they are playing at or away from home.
While you could see them making the final, they would have to be considered underdogs should they be at the MCG on Grand Final day, no matter who they face.
For that reason, you would have to be brave to take the $8 on offer for the Eagles to win the flag.
GWS
AFL Odds to win Premiership: $8
Heading into Round 21 having won 8 of their past 9 clashes, the Giants are on a roll.
They are undoubtedly the form team heading towards September, as they look to better their preliminary-finals defeats in the past two seasons.
The story of GWS's season has been injury, and once again it has become a factor.
With so many of their players battling niggling soft-tissue injuries, getting their squad healthy for a genuine finals crack is the first priority.
If they can manage to get their best team on the park, the Giants' calibre of players is as good if not better than any team in the comp.
Therefore, while a risk, the $8 looks like a smart bet.
Melbourne
AFL Odds to win Premiership: $8
While Dees fans can't take anything for granted, they'll be quietly confident that their team will have a red hot crack in September this year, after a lengthy absence from the finals.
When the Demons are on, they look unstoppable, with their midfield dominating contested possessions before constantly driving the ball inside fifty much to the forwards' delight.
If Melbourne are to go all the way, it will certainly be off the back of their tough as well as high-scoring style of play.
The one knock on the Dees- and it's a big one- is that they have failed to defeat a top 8 team in 2018.
Therefore, these AFL odds look a little too short.
Reasoning: The Tigers and the Giants are just the two best teams at the moment. If both feature in the Grand Final, it will be no surprise to anyone, so get on now before the value dries up.
AFL Top 8 Betting
Geelong
AFL Odds to make the Top 8: $1.11
Sitting at ninth on the ladder, the Cats appear to be the one team that should have no difficulty in coming from outside the eight to make the finals.
They went within a whisker of knocking off the Tigers at the MCG, which bodes well for Chris Scott's men.
With games against the Hawks, Dockers and Suns to round out the regular season, you can chalk up two definite wins and probably three.
With such a great percentage, the two wins against the Dockers and Suns would likely be enough.
The $1.11 is still very short though.
Geelong to make the Top 8: Yes
Port Adelaide
AFL Odds to make the Top 8: $1.33
Sitting at seventh spot on the ladder, Port Adelaide are in serious danger of dropping out of the eight.
Games against the Eagles, Magpies and Bombers presents a tough challenge for Port, who can feel aggrieved after the controversial 3-point loss in the Showdown.
Bouncing back from this disappointment is crucial, and luckily, two of these last three games will be played at the Adelaide Oval.
With the quality to win all three games, the Power should be playing finals footy.
Port Adelaide to make the Top 8: Yes
Sydney
AFL Odds to make the Top 8: $1.95
Currently sitting right on the cusp at eighth spot on the ladder, the Swans are in real danger of dropping out.
A thrilling two-point win over the Pies in Round 20 was crucial, and might ultimately prove the difference between making and not missing out on the finals.
The trouble for the Swans is that they have the hardest run home of any top eight aspirant, having to play the Demons, Giants and Hawks.
Winning two of these three games will go a long way towards guaranteeing a finals spot.
The way these teams are playing, it looks like the Swans will drop out of the eight and be a big omission from September footy.
Swans to make the Top 8: No
North Melbourne
AFL Odds to make the Top 8: $2.25
Like the Swans, the Kangaroos escaped their Round 20 clash with four points by the skin of their teeth.
The 3-point victory over the Lions was a massive result, and you could tell by Brad Scott's reaction when the final siren went.
Despite being a win behind the Swans, the Kangas have a better percentage and three winnable games to end their regular season.
Games against the Bulldogs, Crows and Saints should produce at least two wins.
Even with three wins, the Roos would still need luck to qualify for finals.
Aug 07, 2018 07:01 PM
AAP
AFL Betting Tip: AFL Quinella 2018 GWS/Richmond @ $7
