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Melbourne Demons 120418

AFL Betting Tips Round 16 Preview: Saturday Twilight & Night games

Tagged: AFL

Saturday Twilight and Night games

While both Port Adelaide and Hawthorn are expected to win on Saturday night, they are no guarantees with two upsets a very real possibility.

It's hard to see any way Fremantle could prevail over Melbourne though. Expect the Demons to put a huge score on against a Nat Fyfe-less Freo. 

 

Missed our preview of the early fixtures? Read it here

 

Port Adelaide v St Kilda

AFL Odds: Power $1.13 (-39.5) / Saints $6.05 (+39.5)

Hold the phone because St Kilda have won two on-the-trot.

Both of these victories have come by exactly two points, with last week's triumph over the Demons particularly impressive.

The Saints scored a whopping 119 points- comfortably their highest total this season- on their way to one of the huge upsets of 2018.

It's another tough game this week, as the Saints look to make it three in-a-row.

They come up against Port Adelaide, in Adelaide, which is one of the league's most fearsome road trips.

Port have won four on-the-run now and despite only beating the bottom-placed Blues by 21-points last week, they should be winning comfortably here.

The problem with Port is that they are one of the hardest teams to follow from a punting perspective.

Just when they are looking like they'll secure a top 4 spot, they'll inevitably dish up a howler of a performance.

On the flip side, they have enough quality in their list to be winning this game by a huge margin. Punters beware.

 

AFL Player In Tom Jonas (Port, likely)

 

AFL Player Out Jasper Pittard (Port, likely)

 

 AFL Weather A high chance of showers. Another factor to create uncertainty in the punter's mind.

Key AFL Stats

  • In the corresponding fixture last year, Port Adelaide snuck home by 2 points.
  • St Kilda have covered the line in only 27% of their away matches after a win in the previous round dating back to 2015.
  • Port Adelaide have covered the line in 41% of their matches after winning as a favourite in the previous round from 2015.

 

AFL Betting TipAFL Betting Tip: No bet.

Reasoning: These two teams are the most unpredictable in the league. St Kilda could go on with their form or dish up a stinker.
 

Port Adelaide likewise could win by 100 or just scrape to victory as they did last year. Best to keep your money in the wallet.

 

Western Bulldogs v Hawthorn

AFL Odds: Bulldogs $2.78 (+15.5) / Hawks $1.45 (-15.5)

Like the Saints, the Bulldogs are a team that have seemingly turned their form right around in recent weeks.

It would have been criminal if the Doggies copped an after-the-siren loss last week after playing their socks off. Luckily for them, Harry Taylor sprayed his shot wide, giving the team from Footscray their first win in six games- and deservedly so. 

There's no reason to suggest why they can't go on with it against the Hawks. 

However, unlike the Dogs, Hawthorn are still alive in 2018 and are playing for finals footy.

They will view this game as a must-win if they want to make the eight. A narrow loss to GWS last week would have angered Alastair Clarkson, who is grumpy at the best of times.

You can expect that he will have his team fired up and ready to go against a resurgent Bulldogs outfit.

 

AFL Player In Caleb Daniel (Bulldogs, likely) Jordan Roughead (Bulldogs, likely)

 

AFL Player Out None

 

 AFL Weather Rain around so the roof will be closed at Etihad Stadium, which will favour a high-scoring game.

 

AFL Statistics AFL Stats in focus

The key for the Bulldogs will be stopping Tom Mitchell.

The Brownlow favourite is fresh off 50 disposals against the Giants, and no doubt looking for another half century of touches.

AFL Stats


He averages more than 16 per game, the only Hawk in double figures. The Bulldogs meanwhile have a more even spread of ball winners. Another reason why stopping Mitchell will benefit the Bulldogs.While these two teams have similar contested possession numbers, Mitchell picks up more of the slack for his team.

Key AFL Stat

  • While Hawthorn have won 2 of their last 3 against the Bulldogs, the biggest winning margin has been 9 points.

 

AFL Betting Tip AFL Betting Tip: Western Bulldogs to cover the +15.5 point line @ $1.92

Reasoning:  The Dogs' form in the last two weeks is too good to ignore here.

 

Melbourne v Fremantle

AFL Odds: Demons $1.15 (-39.5) / Dockers $5.80 (+39.5)

After three losses in-a-row, the alarm bells must be ringing for Melbourne fans.

Just when the Demons looked as though they would breeze into the finals with little difficulty, they provided a reminder of why they haven't played finals footy since 2006. 

Luckily, they play what is as close to a gimme game as you can get in the AFL here.

Fremantle away from home and without Nat Fyfe is who Melbourne face on Saturday night. They couldn't have hoped for a better opponent as they look to snap their three game losing streak and get their season back on track. 

Even though the Dockers lost Fyfe to a hamstring injury early on last week, they played probably their worst game of the year, going down to the Lions by 55 points.

Only a massive form turnaround would see them get something from this game.

AFL Player In None

 

AFL Player Out Nat Fyfe (Fremantle)

 

 AFL Weather A balmy evening at TIO Stadium in Darwin. Melbourne are used to playing in the Northern Territory heat which could pose another challenge to Fremantle. 

 

AFL Stats in focus

AFL Stats

Melbourne have dominated in the middle this year, leading the comp in contested possessions.

However, in two of their last three games, their contested possessions have been way down, contributing to defeats.

If they can get their contested ball numbers back up to their 2018 average, Freo have no hope of coming within cooee of the Demons score.

Key AFL Stat

  • The Dockers have lost 6 of their 7 away games in 2018, all by a margin of at least 28 points.

 

AFL Betting Tip AFL Betting Tip: Melbourne to cover the -38.5 point line @ $1.92  NRL Betting Tip

Resoning: When the Demons do win, they do so comfortably. They should have no trouble with this line.

 

NRL Betting Tip= High Confidence

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