AFL Betting Tips Round 21 Preview: The early games

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• Author: Alex Christodoulou
  Aug 09, 2018 12:57 PM
• AAP

Hawks and Cats ready to resume rivalry

Both the Bombers and the Tigers would be expected to win against their respective opponents, St Kilda and Gold Coast, in the early clashes of Round 21.

But in a season of upsets, anything is possible in these interesting betting games.

The definate highlight though will be the latest installment of the Hawthorn v Geelong rivalry that has been one of the most enjoyable match-ups to watch over the past decade.

 

Did you catch our latest AFL odds update including our best futures bets? Read it here

 

Essendon v St Kilda

AFL Odds: Essendon $1.20 (-28.5) / St Kilda $4.60 (+28.5)

The opening fixture of the round sees the Bombers take on the Saints in what is a must win clash if Essendon want to be playing finals footy.

The Bombers need to not only win on Friday night, but win all of their final three matches, as well as hope that other results go their way.

They were on course to come from the clouds to make the eight, before a narrow loss to Hawthorn last round dealt their finals chances a serious blow.

With great winning form prior to that result, and with so much more to play for, Essendon should make light work of St Kilda. 

After a great start, the Saints fell back down to earth in their Round 20 match against the Bulldogs.

Despite this 35-point loss, St Kilda's Seb Ross kicked 3 goals and had 40 disposals in what was arguably his best ever game for the club.

Another standout performance is required to give the Saints any hope.

Matt Dea (Bombers, likely)

Matt Guelfi (Bombers, likely), Tom Hickey (Saints), Josh Battle (Saints)

Weather will play no part under the closed roof at Etihad.

 

Key AFL Stats

• The Bombers have won 6 consecutive matches as a home favourite: Essendon to win head-to-head @ $1.20
• The underdogs have covered the line in 9 of the past 11 meetings between these two sides: St Kilda to cover the +28.5 point line @ $1.92
• Essendon have won 5 of their last 6 matches as a home favourite by a margin of 1-39 points: Essendon to win by a margin of 1-39 points @ $2.25

AFL Betting Tip: Essendon to cover the -28.5 point line @ $1.92

Reasoning: Based on form, you have to go with this bet. Even with St Kilda's best player Seb Ross performing his socks off last week, his team still went down by 35 points. Expect a bigger margin here.

 

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Hawthorn v Geelong

AFL Odds: Hawthorn $2.20 (+6.5) / Geelong $1.68 (-6.5)

Based on how they've been playing in the last month, it's incredible that the Cats find themselves in ninth spot on the ladder, one win outside the top eight.

The Hawks meanwhile have flown somewhat under the radar, finding themselves in fifth, with yet another finals appearance looking likely.

This game therefore has huge bearing on the race for finals footy.

If this game were played down in Geelong, the Cats would be morals to take the four points and leapfrog the Hawks on the ladder.

However, at the MCG, any result is possible.

With Tom Mitchell continuing to rack up the numbers in the middle of the park, his influence will need to be curtailed if the Cats want to be winning.

But after coming within a whisker of snapping the Tigers record-breaking MCG winning streak, the Cats look to have the better form heading in.

Tom Stewart (Geelong, likely), Rhys Stanley (Geelong, likely)

None

Plenty of rain around, so this could turn into a low-scoring and hard-fought affair.

 

AFL Stats in Focus

This table shows a key difference in how Alastair Clarkson's and Chris Scott's sides set up.

While Geelong have the better midfield and perform well in the stoppages with high clearance numbers, the Hawks are better on the outside, using the ball effectively and getting it inside 50.

But with wet weather forecast, winning the ball from clearances will be more important, and its the reason why Geelong have the advantage in this game.

Key AFL Stat

• 3 of the last 4 matches between these two sides have been decided by less than a goal: Either team to win by less than 15.5 points @ $2.50

AFL Betting Tip: Geelong to cover the -6.5 point line @ $1.92

Reasoning: With too many high-class players that are getting better each week in the lead up to finals, and with a style of play that is better adapted to wet weather, expect the Cats to be too strong.

 

Gold Coast v Richmond

AFL Odds: Gold Coast $17 (+65.5) / Richmond $1.01 (-65.5)

One of the more interesting fixtures of the week sees the Tigers travel up to the Gold Coast to take on the struggling Suns.

After the Tigers just held on to their four point lead against Geelong last week, this game can go one of two ways.

Either Richmond get complacent in the belief that they can't lose, and receive another massive scare against a cellar-dwelling Suns.

Or, more likely, they bounce back from last week's scare and put Gold Coast away in the first quarter, and go on to post a huge win.

What is going for the Suns is that Richmond's four losses in 2018 have come outside of Victoria.

But after coming off a 96-point loss to the Demons, you wouldn't tip the Suns to cover the line with much confidence.

Steven May (Suns), David Swallow (Suns, likely), Dion Prestia (Tigers, likely)

Peter Wright (Suns)

 No rain around, so scoring should prove easy.

 

Key AFL Stats

• The Tigers have won their last 4 matches in Queensland by a margin of 40+ points: Richmond to win by a margin of 40+ points @ $1.20
• Reigning premiers have failed to cover the line in 7 consecutive matches played in August: Gold Coast to cover the +65.5 point line @ $1.92
• Gold Coast have covered the line in 7 of their last 9 day matches at Metricon Stadium following a loss.

AFL Betting Tip: Gold Coast to cover the +65.5 point line @ $1.92

Reasoning: The Tigers have been poor outside of Victoria this year, and the Suns will look to show something after a humiliating loss last week.