Sunday afternoon throws up three quality games for AFL fans and punters alike to get their teeth stuck in to. While the Carlton v Melbourne rivalry is always an entertaining match, the first versus second game at Perth Stadium to close out Round 9 is easily the most anticipated game of the round.
Both West Coast and Richmond have 7-1 W/L record coming in, promising a hard-fought and high-quality encounter for outright first on the ladder.
Sunday arvo kicks off with one of the AFL's most prestigious rivalries when Melbourne take on Carlton at the G. The Blues finally managed to get their first taste of victory in 2018 last week, when they narrowly defeated a poor Essendon outfit. The task here will be much tougher, with the resurgent Demons fresh off three big wins in a row, highlighted by last week's 69-point drubbing of the Suns.
Melbourne's forward line is back firing, led by big and versatile Jesse Hogan, and Tom McDonald, who looks to have completed his transition from key defender to key forward. Carlton's defence is their best attribute, but it looks to be tested, especially with the absence of Sam Docherty.
Key Ins: Marc Murphy (Carlton)
Key Outs: None
Key AFL Stats
Melbourne are leading the competition in both contested possessions (1305) and centre clearances (116).
Carlton have won 8 of their last 30 games as an underdog at the MCG.
The Blues have covered the line in 71% of their games as an underdog at the MCG from 2017.
Betting tip: Melbourne to win by a margin of 1-39 points @ $2.25
In what appears to be a fairly routine match that the Hawks should be winning, an element of spice and unpredictability is added by Luke Hodge coming up against his old Hawthorn team for the first time. He will doubtless employ all of his experience and leadership qualities to try and inspire his Lions teammates to record their first win of the season, which would be all the more sweet against old club.
While the Lions haven't won, they haven't been all that bad either, especially in recent weeks. Back-to-back losses of less than 15 points, and back at the Gabba where they are a noticeably better team, don't write the Lions off from producing an upset.
However, Hawthorn are a quality side, and coach Alastair Clarkson will be fired up and looking for a win after perceived injustice at the hands of the umpires in last week's narrow loss to the Swans.
Key Ins: Paul Puopolo (Hawthorn, likely)
Key Outs: None
Key AFL Stats
Brisbane haven't defeated Hawthorn since 2009.
Hawthorn have covered the line in 35% of their away daytime matches since 2015.
Brisbane have a covered the line in 41% of their matches at the Gabba when starting as the underdog.
Betting tip: Hawthorn to win by a margin of 1-39 points @ $2.10
The game of the round is saved until last, with this top-of-the-table clash set to be a belter in front of a fierce West Coast crowd. With both teams coming in having only lost one game all year, the result here will go a long way towards indicating the favourite to nab the minor premiership.
While West Coast have surprised pundits and been in stellar form since their Round 1 defeat to the Swans, the Tigers just look like a team that can't be beaten at the moment. Even when they don't play at their best, they find a way to win, demonstrated in last week's narrow victory over North Melbourne.
While they never play as well outside of Melbourne as they do at home, you would be brave to tip against the Tigers here.
Josh Kennedy and Jack Darling each kicking a bag in the forward line looks like West Coast's only chance to outscore the Tigers here.
Key Ins: Jeremy McGovern (West Coast, likely) Shaun Grigg (Richmond, likely)
Key Outs: Jason Castagna (Richmond, likely)
Key AFL Stats
The Tigers have won 71% of their games as a favourite after a win in the previous round from 2015.
32% of the above games have gone UNDER the total match points line.
West Coast have won 25 of their last 31 games as a home team, coming off an interstate match in the previous round.
May 20, 2018 12:57 PM
AAP
