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Geelong Gary Ablett

AFL Betting Tips Round 16 Preview: The Early Games

Tagged: AFL

Star Cats to prove their worth?

Geelong find themselves perilously close to slipping off the precipice out of the eight. They will look to return to safer footing with a win against the Swans tonight.

On Friday night, the Tigers are aiming to continue their MCG dominance, while Carlton face an uphill battle to secure their second win of 2018 against the Lions on Saturday.

 

Sydney v Geelong

AFL Odds: Swans $1.62 (-7.5) / Cats $2.32 (+7.5)

After a slight setback against reigning premiers Richmond last round, the Swans will look to get straight back into the winner's circle in front of their home fans.

It won't be easy, with Geelong, and Harry Taylor especially, looking to make amends after their agonising loss to the Bulldogs in Round 15.

Taylor had a relatively easy shot at goal after the siren that would've won the game for the Cats. However, he sprayed his shot wide, causing Geelong to slip down to eighth spot on the ladder, only thanking their good percentage to keep them in the eight.

With the race for finals footy expected to go down to the wire, winning these types of games will make the difference between playing in September, or taking an early holiday.

Sydney are going too well to tip against, even with Geelong's star names finally coming to the boil.

Expect a low scoring and tight encounter, as this match up sees two of the league's best defences doing battle. 

 

AFL Player In Scott Selwood (Geelong)

 

AFL Player Out Isaac Heeney (Sydney), Gary Rohan (Sydney)

 

 AFL Weather A warm and fine winter's night in Sydney. Expect a big crowd to get behind the Bloods.

 

AFL Stats AFL Stats in focus

AFL Stats

With two of the best defensive outfits squaring off, scoring will be at a premium tonight.

Having a forward who is able to kick three goals will be a massive asset. This game is made for Buddy.

Key AFL Stat

  • The Swans have won 7 consecutive matches following a loss in the previous round.

 

AFL Betting Tip AFL Betting Tip: Sydney to cover the -14.5 point line into total match points UNDER 160.5 @ $3.90

Reasoning: Even though it will be a low scoring game, the Swans attack is clicking better than the Cats forward line which should be enough to see them clear the 14.5 line.

 

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Richmond v Adelaide

AFL OddsTigers $1.22 (-30.5) / Crows $4.35 (+30.5)

Adelaide finally got back to somewhere near their best last week.

Even though they only triumphed by 10 points over the Eagles, it could easily have been by 30.

Crows fans will be hoping that this win will propel them on a run that sees them play finals footy. Unfortunately for them however, they come up against the Tigers at the MCG in Round 16.

The first Grand Final replay this year saw the Crows put last year's disappointment behind them with a 6-goal win. That's one thing in Adelaide's favour for the rematch.

However, the scales are still tipped heavily towards Richmond. They are fresh off arguably their best performance of the year, where they were simply too good for the resilient Swans.

But it's Richmond's MCG record that will have the Crows quaking in their boots.

The Tigers' renowned tackling pressure only becomes more fierce when playing in front of their home fans, and the main reason why they have won 16 on-the-trot at the home of AFL footy.

With Dustin Martin also due for a standout game, this could get ugly for the Crows.

 

AFL Player In Tom Lynch (Adelaide, likely)

 

AFL Player Out Nick Vlaustin (Richmond)

 

 AFL Weather A shower or two around during the day, but should be clear by game time. Nothing to worry the Tigers.

 

AFL Stats AFL Stats in focus

The disposal efficiency numbers back up claims that the Tigers had their best game of 2018 last round.

AFL Stats

While it mightn't seem like much, an increase of almost 3% disposal efficiency makes a huge difference on the pitch. If the Tigers can back that up, they'll win comfortably.

Key AFL Stat

  • The average winning margin from the Tigers' last 5 MCG wins has been 47 points.

 

AFL Stats  AFL Betting Tip: Richmond to cover the -30.5 point line @ $1.92

Reasoning:If the Tigers beat the high-flying Swans by 26 points last round, they should cover this line with ease against the Crows.

 

Brisbane v Carlton

AFL Odds: Lions $1.40  (-19.5) / Blues $2.90 (+19.5)

Saturday's first game is a battle of the cellar-dwellers, with bottom of the ladder Carlton making the trip up to Brisbane to take on the second-last placed Lions.

Brisbane have shown far more than the Blues in 2018, especially when playing at home.

They recorded their second win of the year last round when playing the Dockers in Perth, demonstrating that they are quickly becoming a competitive team week-on-week.

The Lions didn't just beat Freo, they flogged them, going on to win by a handsome 55 points.

Unfortunately, Carlton have been devoid of much positivity this season. Take out Patrick Cripps and you have probably the worst season in recent memory from the Blues Baggers.

While injury problems and a very young squad haven't helped, the Blues desperately need a win for their fans' sake. You can't see that happening here. 

 

AFL Player In Dale Thomas (Carlton), Matthew Kreuzer (Carlton, likely)

 

AFL Player Out None

 

 AFL Weather A 60% chance of showers that could impact Brisbane's scoring potential.

 

AFL Stats in focus

AFL Stats

As you need to score points to win games of footy, it's clear to see why the Blues have only won once in 2018. With their forwards having respectable kicking stats in front of goal, it's clear that there is a lack of quality service from their midfield. 

Key AFL Stat

  • The Lions have won 5 of their last 6 clashes against Carlton.

 

AFL Betting Tip AFL Betting Tip: Brisbane to win by a margin of 1-39 points.

Reasoning: While Carlton have been poor this season, they haven't lost by 40 or more points in 4 of their last 5 games. 

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