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Collingwood Jordan DeGoey

AFL Betting Preview Round 12: Sunday & Monday games


Queen's Birthday clash promises to be a belter

After Sunday's games which see four teams all trying to get back into the winner's circle, the Queen's Birthday rivalry game between Melbourne and Collingwood will take centre stage.

Both teams are coming in with fantastic recent form, and the game is sure to be a high-quality spectacle. Being the only game held at the MCG in Round 12, coupled with the fact that it's a public holiday and features two of the league's biggest clubs in top form, the crowd should be enormous.  

 

Brisbane ($2.25) v Essendon ($1.65)

After a great win against GWS in what looked like a turning of the tables for the Bombers, they took a massive step back in their 71-point defeat against the Tigers in last week's dreamtime at the G match. Coming up against the 17th-placed Lions, this is their chance to make amends.

Despite Brisbane's second from last position on the ladder, they haven't been all that bad in the last month, especially at home.

A huge win against the Hawks sandwiched between narrow losses to Collingwood and Sydney at the Gabba reads as an excellent form line for this clash.

If Essendon turn up, they could win handsomely. But their continued inconsistent performances suggest that they are not the same team as last year. Expect Brisbane, led by Zorko and Beams in the midfield, to take it to the Bombers.

Key Ins: Jarrod Berry (Brisbane), Same Mayes (Brisbane), Mason Redman (Essendon)

Key Outs: Charlie Cameron (Brisbane), Mitch Robinson (Brisbane), David Zaharakis (Essendon)

Key AFL Stats

  • The away team has won 5 of the last 6 matches between these two clubs.
  • Each of Essendon's last 5 interstate day matches have gone OVER the total match points line.
  • The Lions have won 2 of their last 3 games against the Bombers.

AFL Betting Tip: Brisbane to cover the +6.5 point line into total match points OVER 187.5 @ $3.90

 

Missed our review of the early games? Read it here

 

Fremantle ($3.05) v Adelaide ($1.38)

With both teams desperate to get back to winning ways, this Sunday afternoon encounter promises to be a hard-fought affair.

Fremantle will have to cope without captain and star man Nat Fyfe, who was ruled out with a suspension, dashing his chance of claiming a second Brownlow medal in the process.

While Freo will be without Fyfe, Adelaide have personnel problems of their own. The continued absence of Taylor Walker and Rory Sloane has been a big part of the Crows' recent poor form. Adelaide's fringe players need to step up, as another defeat will put a huge dent in their top eight aspirations.   

Despite the Dockers' relatively good home form, they look to be outclassed here. Three heavy defeats in a row don't bode well, especially when compounded by the loss of Fyfe.

Key Ins: None

Key Outs: Nat Fyfe (Fremantle), Tom Lynch (Adelaide, likely), Rory Laird (Adelaide, likely)

Key AFL Stats

  • The Crows have won their past 3 matches against the Dockers.
  • Adelaide are ranked 2nd in the league for contested possessions per game (158.1), while Fremantle are second last with 137.8
  • Freemantle haven't lost a game by more than 30 points at Optus Stadium.

AFL Betting Tip: Adelaide to win by a margin of 1-39 points @ $2.00

 

Any idea who the leading AFL celebrity tipsters are? Check out the leaderboard here.

 

Melbourne ($1.58) v Collingwood ($2.40)

While this traditional Queen's Birthday match is always a belter, this one promises to be one of the best yet.

Unusually, both Collingwood and Melbourne find themselves in the top eight at the halfway mark through the regular season. A win for either team would go a long way to shoring up a position in the finals come September.

The Magpies head into this clash coming off three straight wins, highlighted by last week's 61-point thrashing of Fremantle. While this is great form, it's nothing compared to what the Demons have been dishing up in recent weeks.

Melbourne have won six straight, with the smallest winning margin of these six games being 36 points against Essendon in Round 6.

A lot of sixes for the appropriately-named Demons.

The key to this six-game streak has been the Dees' attack. Pies' coach Nathan Buckley needs to put in a double shift to come up with a game plan to stop Melbourne's forwards in their tracks. 

In such a big rivalry game, every play will be magnified. While the result largely depends on who wins the battle between Collingwood's defenders and Melbourne's attackers, both sets of midfield players are in tremendous form, and may decide this contest.

Key Ins: Jeremy Howe (Collingwood, likely)

Key Outs: Jake Lever (Melbourne)  

Key AFL Stats

  • Melbourne have won 4 of their last 5 matches with Collingwood.
  • Collingwood have covered the line in 17 of their last 22 games (77.3%) as an away underdog.
  • The Demons' smallest winning margin from their 8 wins in 2018 was 26 points against the Lions in Round 2.

AFL Betting Tip: Collingwood to win head-to-head @ $2.40.  

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