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GWS Josh Kelly

AFL Betting Preview Round 15: Saturday night footy

Tagged: AFL

Can the Giants Cope without Cameron?

Saturday evening sees three fixtures takes place in three different states.

While Collingwood should have Gold Coast's measure, the other two games are interesting betting affairs for punters.

Adelaide could be about to put a halt to their mid-season slide down the ladder, while the winner of GWS and Hawthorn will likely sneak into the top eight. 

 

Missed our preview of the earlier Round 15 games? Read it here 

 

Adelaide v West Coast 

AFL Odds: Adelaide $1.55 (-9.5) / West Coast $2.47 (+9.5)

After great starts to the season, both of these clubs are on the slide.

Adelaide will do everything in their power to avoid losing their fifth consecutive game in front of their home fans on Saturday afternoon.

Rory Sloane's expected inclusion will provide a massive shot in the arm for the Crows, who desperately need the midfield star to come in and lift his teammates.

While West Coast have only lost two in-a-row and are still sitting inside the top four, their performances in the past two games have been ugly.

A team with one of the best kicking accuracies in the league, the Eagles sorely missed gun forwards Josh Kennedy and Jack Darling last week, and it showed on the scoreboard.

The Eagles kicked 6.16 (6 goals and 16 behinds) in one of the worst kicking displays of the season.

AFL Player In Rory Sloane (Adelaide, likely), Tom Lynch (Adelaide, likely), Rory Laird (Adelaide, likely)

 

AFL Player Out None

 

 AFL WeatherHardly any rain about, provide a great opportunity for the Crows to get back to their high-scoring best at Adelaide Oval.

 

AFL Stats in focus

AFL Stats

Looking at how these two teams match up when going forward, it would be easy to assume that West Coast will walk over the top of Adelaide. Don't be seduced by these numbers however.

The continued absence of Darling and Kennedy takes away most of West Coast's marking power inside 50.

The return of Sloane will surely lead to a significant upswing in the amount of times the Crows get the ball into their forwards.

Tom Lynch also makes a comeback from injury and will add marking power in Adelaide's forward 50. 

Key AFL Stat

  • Adelaide has won 5 of their last 6 home games, when coming off 9 or more days of rest from the previous game.

AFL Betting Tips AFL Betting Tip

Adelaide to cover the -9.5 point line @ $1.92

 

Any idea who the best AFL expert tipsters are? Check out the leaderboard here

 

Gold Coast v Collingwood

AFL Odds: Gold Coast $5.75 (+35.5) / Collingwood $1.14 (-35.5)

This is one of those fixtures where the punter needs to decide on how much one team will win by, not who comes out on top head-to-head.

It's impossible not to tip Collingwood over the Suns based on recent form.

The Pies have won five in-a-row and are shaping up as a genuine top four team. However, injury to star midfielder Adam Treloar in last week's win over Carlton is a significant blow.

Even so, there is more than enough talent to be winning comfortably over the Suns, whose future looks as gloomy as it's ever been.

The Gold Coast outfit have lost eight consecutive matches, with their lack of goals the chief hindrance to notching up wins.

This deficiency in front of goal comes down to the Suns' poor kicking quality, both in front of goal and in general play.

AFL Player In None

 

AFL Player Out Adam Treloar (Collingwood)

 

 AFL Weather A possibility of showers, which will make clean disposals even more crucial. 

 

AFL Stats in focus

AFL Stats

Collingwood's use of the ball is just too fluent and classy to be troubled by the Suns. Even without Treloar, the Pies should be winning this blindfolded.

Key AFL Stat

  • The Suns have failed to score more than 50 points in 4 of their last 5 games.

AFL Betting Tips  AFL Betting Tip

Collingwood to cover the -35.5 point line @ $1.92

 

GWS v Hawthorn 

AFL Odds: GWS $1.78 (-3.5) / Hawthorn $2.05 (+3.5)

There have been two central problems that have caused the Giants to have a below par year thus far: missing personnel, and poor kicking in front of goal.

Once again, this will be an issue here with GWS's main forward weapon Jeremy Cameron sidelined for five weeks after being suspended for the ugly incident with Brisbane's Harris Andrews last round.

The Giants have been resurgent of late and if they can cope without Cameron, there is nothing to suggest they won't be winning again.

However, Hawthorn will be desperately hunting the four points themselves, in a bid to remain within top eight calculations.

Like the Giants, the Hawks are fresh off three consecutive wins, looking to make it four.

AFL Player In None

 

AFL Player Out Jeremy Cameron (GWS) Shaun Burgoyne (Hawthorn)

 

 AFL Weather Sunny conditions and no wind to speak of. This should help the Giants in the goal-scoring department.

 

AFL Stats in focus

AFL Stats

This table neatly summarises the strength of both teams. Hawthorn are efficient, and despite lacking the penetration from the midfield, make good use of their chances in the forward line.

In contrast, the Giants have been struggling in front of goal yet have a dominant midfield that will create plenty of chances.

If Jonathon Patton stands up in the absence of Cameron, expect GWS to prove too strong.

Key AFL Stat

  • In every game that the Giants have lost this year, they have kicked more behinds than goals. 

AFL Betting Tips AFL Betting Tip

GWS to cover the -3.5 point line @ $1.92

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