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Melbourne Souths

NRL Betting Tips Round 21 Preview:Thursday & Friday night footy

Tagged: NRL

Bunnies caught in the eye of the Storm

Bulldogs Broncos 

NRL Odds: Canterbury Bulldogs $3.55 (+9.5) / Brisbane Broncos $1.30 (-9.5)

The Bulldogs go into this clash with solid momentum after a grity win over the Tigers last week. 

Having the third best missed tackles record in the competition, the Dogs will once again look to their solid defence to keep them in the game. 

The Dogs have managed to stay in the majority of contests throughout the season, and while they have won only five games, 9 of their 12 losses have been by a margin of 1-12.  

The Broncos have shown serious intent in recent weeks, managing to win four of their past five games with their only blemish coming against the Warriors in round 18. 

Brisbane is ranked second in the league for completing their sets and will need to win the battle of the forwards if they are to come out on top here. 

The loss of David Klemmer comes as a huge blow to Canterbury, who will now look to Aiden Tolman and Josh Jackson to lead from the front. 

NRL Player In C Smith (Bulldogs) 

NRL Player Out D Klemmer (Bulldogs)

NRL Weather Fine and 13 degrees.

NRL Stats Key NRL stats

  • Average points scored: Bulldogs 15.9 / Broncos 20.8
  • Average points conceded: Bulldogs 19.9 / Broncos 20.4
  • Brisbane have 5 wins from 9 attempts on the road in 2018

NRL Betting TipKey NRL Betting Stats

  • 10 of the Broncos' 12 wins have been by a margin of 1-12: Broncos 1-12 @ $3.00 
  • Corey Oates (3) leads the Broncos in first try scorers this season: Corey Oates first try scorer @ $7.50
  • Clashes at ANZ Stadium have averaged 33.8 total match points: 'Under' total match points line of 39.5 points @ $1.90

NRL Betting Tip NRL Betting Tip: 'UNDER' total match points line of 39.5 points @$1.90

Reasoning: The Bulldogs' blunt attack will be up against a strong Broncos defensive line that is improving every week. 

With Canterbury's ability to drag their opponents into a dog-fight, don't expect the Broncos to run away with this one.

No matter who comes out on top, this looks set to be a low scoring encounter. 

 

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Knights Tigers

NRL Odds: Newcastle Knights $2.05 (+1.5) / Wests Tigers $1.78 (-1.5)

Newcastle is coming off their worst half of footy this season and will be looking to save face back in front of a boisterous home crowd. 

The Knights are ranked first in the league for completions so ball security hasn't been an issue, however their ability to apply scoreboard pressure is where they've come unstuck. 

The return of Connor Watson will add to their attacking flair and unpredictability. Look for a big performance from Shaun Kenny-Dowall who is playing his 250th NRL game. 

Wests waived goodbye to their finals hopes last week, going down to the Bulldogs in an uninspiring effort.

With their finals hopes on the line, they only managed to score four points which came late in the game. 

With their season all but done, it's hard to see the Tigers putting together an 80-minute performance on the road. 

NRL Player In  C Denniss (Knights), C Watson (Knights), J Felise (Knights), R Rochow (Tigers)

NRL Player Out N Ross (Knights), J Lillyman (Knights), J Cogger (Knights), Chris McQueen (Tigers)

NRL Weather Mostly sunny and 14 degrees.

NRL Stats Key NRL stats

  • Average points scored per game: Knights 18.3 / Tigers 15.2
  • Average points conceded per game: Knights 25.7 / Tigers 17.5
  • Wests have lost 6 consecutive Friday-night games 

NRL Betting TipKey NRL Betting Stats

  • Wests have lost all 3 games as away favourites this season: Knights to win head-to-head @ $2.05
  • Lachlan Fitzgibbon has scored a try in his last 11 matches at McDonald Jones Stadium: Lachlan Fitzgibbon any time try scorer @ $3.50
  • Clashes at McDonald Jones Stadium have averaged 43.3 total match points: 'Over' match line of 36.5 points @ $1.90

NRL Betting Tip NRL Betting Tip: Over total match points line of 36.5 points @ $1.90

Reasoning: Both sides have little to play for which will promote plenty of risk-taking in attack.

The motivation for players to put their body on the line in defence will be low, which should create plenty of defensive lapses.

Expect an expansive game of footy and a potentially high-scoring game.  

 

Rabbitohs Storm

NRL Odds: South Sydney Rabbitohs $2.15 (+2.5) / Melbourne Storm $1.71 (-2.5)

This top of the table clash should be a cracker. The Bunnies suffered a huge scare last week and were lucky to get away with a narrow win over the Eels.

If not for the Jarryd Hayne no-try decision mid-way through the second half, the Bunnies could have suffered their most embarrassing defeat of the year. 

Souths have only averaged 18.6 points in their past three games, down from their season average of 24.1 points per game, and now face the second-best defensive side in the league. 

The Bunnies are sitting in second position on the ladder but have won only four games against top-eight teams. With upcoming games against the Roosters and Broncos, they will now need to prove themselves in the run home to the finals.

With their attacking formation and game plan now well exposed, coach Anthony Seibold will be racing against the clock to reinvigorate their attack in the coming weeks. 

The Storm have won eight on-the-trot now and are building steady momentum as they look to become the first team to win back-to-back premierships since the great Broncos side of '92' and '93'. 

Melbourne have suffocated opposition sides all season, conceding the least amount of line-breaks in the league and missing the least amount of tackles. This impressive defence sees them sit second best in points conceded, only one point behind the Roosters. 

The return of veteran Ryan Hoffman for this game will be a bonus to an already quality Storm side.

Look for the big three, Cameron Smith, Billy Slater and Cameron Munster to take it up a gear in this top of the table clash. 

NRL Player In R Hoffman (Storm)

NRL Player Out C Blair (Storm)

NRL Weather Mostly sunny and 12 degrees.

 

NRL Stats in Focus 

Both teams have shown plenty of spark in attack this season. 

They are evenly matched for the most part, however the Bunnies have shown an inability to build pressure. Ranked last in the league for forced drop-outs, they fall short in an attribute that is much-needed when looking to win the arm wrestle against a quality side like the Storm. 

Whilst Melbourne's low completion rate is a concern it hasn't affected their point scoring ability. 

NRL Stats

The Storm holds a clear advantage in the defensive stats. 

The Bunnies' best bet to break Melbourne's defensive line will be to exploit the Storm's inability to stop the offload

Watch-out Bunnies fans. Cameron Smith, often referred to as the third referee, will be doing his best to earn the 50/50 calls. With Souths ranked 11th in the league for penalties conceded, they will need to remain disciplined for the entire 80-minutes or they could be penalised out of this game. 

NRL Stats

 

NRL Stats Key NRL stats

  • Average points scored: Rabbitohs 24.1 / Storm 24.0
  • Average points conceded: Rabbitohs 17.2 / Storm 14.8
  • Melbourne have won 11 of the last 12 clashes against Souths

NRL Betting TipKey NRL Betting Stats

  • The Storm have won their last three interstate games by a margin of 1-12: Storm 1-12@$2.90 
  • Cody Walker (3) leads both teams in first-try scorers this season - Cody Walker first try scorer @ $23
  • Clashes at ANZ Stadium have averaged 33.8 total match points - 'Under' match line of 36.5 points @ $1.90

NRL Betting TipNRL Betting Tip: Storm to cover line of -2.5 @$1.90 NRL Betting Tip

Reasoning: Melbourne has the defensive structure to keep the Bunnies attack at bay.

They also possess quality attacking options across the park and with Cameron Smith steering the ship, will prove too strong for Souths. 

                                                                             NRL Betting Tip = High Confidence

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