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Collingwood Carlton

AFL Betting Preview Round 14: Saturday & Sunday Games


Bitter rivals take centre stage on Sunday

The common theme uniting the games across the Saturday and Sunday Round 14 games is that there are four short-price favourites coming up against four rank outsiders. 

While it's hard to see any of the underdogs getting up, both Brisbane and Carlton shape up as the best chances to get within cooee of their opponents' scores. 

With all eyes focused on the MCG on Sunday afternoon, can the Blues pull off a huge upset in the AFL's biggest and most bitter rivalry?  

 

Hawthorn ($1.05)Gold Coast ($10.50)

If Gold Coast can somehow find the win here, they will claim the title of upset of the season. 

Even though this isn't the same all-conquering Hawthorn side of two or three years ago, they have far too much class for the hapless Suns.

Combine this with Hawthorn's near faultless record when playing at The University of Tasmania Stadium in Launceston, and Gold Coast's task looks insurmountable. 

The real question is, how much the Hawks will win by?

They beat the Crows by 56 last week and you'd think it would have to be an even bigger margin this week.

The Suns just don't have enough points in them.

Star forward Tom Lynch has had a quiet, injury-interrupted year, and is only averaging 2 goals a game. He will need to kick at least 5 for the Suns to keep this respectable.

 

AFL Player In   James Frawley (Hawthorn, likely)

 

AFL Player Out  None

 

 AFL Weather  Chance of showers, but not expected to impact playing conditions.

 

Where it will be won

The Suns will need to show a remarkable improvement in their kicking stats to have any chance here. Their effective disposal percentage (how much clean ball their forwards get) is the worst in the league and their accuracy in front of the sticks isn't much better. 

The Hawks clearly come up trumps in the kicking department and their could be an avalanche of points piled on in Launceston.

AFL Statistics

 

Key AFL Stat

  • Gold Coast haven't scored more than 50 points in 3 of their last 4 games.

 

AFL Betting Tip AFL Betting Tip: Hawthorn to win by 60+ points @ $2.25 

 

Brisbane ($3.65)GWS ($1.29)

The twilight game on Saturday sees the resurgent Giants travel to the Gabba to take on Brisbane, who are looking for their second win of the year.

The benefit for punters in this match up is that they have already played each other this season.

 In Round 6, the Giants ground out a 34-point win in Sydney, in what was their last victory before a 4-game losing streak.

While GWS are vastly improved in recent weeks, the Lions have been solid at home all year, and this game could be closer than many expect.

Before their bye last week, the Lions went down by 22 points to the Bombers. Inaccurate kicking in front of goal cost them in this game.

If they can rectify this error, they will definitely give the Giants a scare.

 

AFL Player In Stephen Coniglio (GWS)

 

AFL Player Out Rory Lobb (GWS)

 

AFL Weather Sunny with light winds. Near ideal.

 

Where it will be won

Both these clubs have struggled to kick straight this year and if Giants fans are wondering why their team have been off the boil, it's because of their ineffectiveness in front of the sticks. The GWS midfield have been doing their job by giving their forwards plenty of looks in front of goal, however the Giants full forwards have been poor in front of goal.

The opposite can be said about the Lions, who have clearly been over-run in midfield. If the GWS forwards bring their kicking boots, it could be a long Saturday afternoon for Lions fans.

AFL Statistics

Key AFL Stat

  • At the Gabba this year, the Lions haven't lost a game by more than 26 points. 

 

AFL Betting Tip AFL Betting Tip: GWS to win by a margin of 1-39 points @ $2.15

 

Western Bulldogs ($4.60)North Melbourne ($1.20)

Round 14's first game in Melbourne is a must-win game for the Bulldogs, whose top eight aspirations are dead and buried unless they can pull off the upset. 

Four losses in a row for the team from Footscray have all but decimated their finals aspirations. They look a defeated side, and a shadow of the team that triumphed in the 2016 grand final.

However, it's not all doom and gloom, as the Dogs play their best football at Etihad Stadium. Coming up against rivals North Melbourne might just be the catalyst the Dogs need to spark into life. 

After a disappointing 37-point loss to the Cats in Round 12, the Kangas have to come out and prove that they will be as strong in the second half of the season as they were in the first.

If they carry over that form, a big win is on the cards, especially with the Bulldogs' injury troubles.

 

AFL Player In  Matt Suckling (Bulldogs, likely) Jarrad Waite (Kangaroos, likely)

 

AFL Player Out  Easton Wood (Bulldogs), Jack Macrae (Bulldogs)

 

AFL Weather High chance of showers, so expect the roof to be closed.

 

Where it will be won

Dogs coach Luke Beveridge will be seething at his side's form in front of goal this season. They have been the worst in the league with a kicking accuracy percentage of 38.7%, which is a tough pill to swallow for Dogs fans considering how effective they have been in getting clean ball to their forwards.

With an injury-depleted forward line, the Dogs will need to pull off something special to win.  

AFL Statistics

Key AFL Stat

  • The Bulldogs have lost by 30+ in their last 4 games.

 

AFL Betting Tip AFL Betting Tip: North Melbourne to cover the -32.5 point line @ $1.92.

 

 

Collingwood ($1.07)Carlton ($8.50)

Sunday's sole game sees bitter rivals Collingwood and Carlton face off at the MCG.

The Magpies played their best game of the season in Round 12, wiping the floor with the Demons. Their energy in the midfield and forward line was infectious.

Even big American import Mason Cox played his best game yet, booting five, looking like he's been playing Aussie Rules all his life.

If the Pies reproduce that effort, they could be winning by a hundred against the Blues.

However, in this heated derby, the Blues always turn up. Despite lacking the skill and class of the Magpies who are a few years advanced in terms of development, the young Blues are sure to give every last drop of effort.

While Collingwood's class will surely prevail, the Blues will keep it tight.

 

AFL Player In  Matthew Kennedy (Carlton)

 

AFL Player Out Daniel Wells (Collingwood)

 

AFL Weather  Light winds and showers. Nothing to affect the footy.

 

Where it will be won

Despite sitting in the bottom half of the eight, the Pies have been outstanding in opposition halves this season. They lead the league in effective disposals and are 2nd in goal kicking accuracy, which suggests that the points will flow against the Blues.

The same can't be said about the Blues, who have struggled to capitalise on goal scoring opportunities all season.


AFL Statistics

 

Key AFL Stat

  • In the last 5 games between these two clubs, the biggest winning margin has been 24 points.

 

AFL Betting Tip  AFL Betting Tip: Carlton to cover the +46.5 point line @ $1.92

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